The Proliferation of High-Containment Facilities Worldwide
While global anxiety frequently fixates on climate change, artificial intelligence, and nuclear war, Annie Jacobsen argues that biological war represents a critical extinction-level threat. The growing accessibility of advanced gene-editing tools and the widespread distribution of high-containment laboratories have lowered the barriers to creating and releasing dangerous pathogens.
Public records indicate that there are currently 110 Biosafety Level 4 (BSL-4) laboratories operating globally, alongside more than 3,500 Biosafety Level 3 (BSL-3) facilities. Security analysts have noted that many of these laboratories are situated in places without a lot of security, including in countries where there are wars going on, elevating concerns regarding accidental containment breaches.
The Soviet Defection That Exposed Clandestine Programs
International efforts to control biological agents formally began decades ago. In 1969, United States President Nixon unilaterally announced the destruction of the arsenal, a move that coincided with international negotiations for the Biological Weapons Convention Treaty.
However, historical disclosures revealed that the Soviet Union continued to develop a colossal, clandestine biological weapons program despite signing the treaty. That covert network remained largely hidden from the CIA and the Pentagon until 1989, when Soviet scientist Vladimir Pasechnik defected and informed British intelligence about the program.
Engineering Pathogens and Enhancing Transmissibility
Historical evaluations of those Cold War initiatives documented efforts by Soviet bioweapons engineers to modify pathogens—such as Yersinia pestis, the bacterium responsible for plague—to enhance transmissibility and complicate medical countermeasures.
Contemporary biosecurity concerns extend beyond state-backed laboratories to encompass rapid advancements in computational biology and artificial intelligence. Tech CEOs have publicly warned that AI could make creating killer germs easier, potentially allowing individuals with limited knowledge of biology to create a biological weapon in their basement with the use of computational systems.
Evaluating Low Barriers to Entry and Regulatory Deficits
Unlike nuclear weapons, which require fissile materials and complex delivery systems like intercontinental ballistic missiles or submarines, biological weapons possess few barriers to entry.