Lyon, France — June 10, 2024 — Tadej Pogačar’s team at the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes stage race has left little doubt about the 2024 Tour de France’s likely narrative: a dominant Slovenian favorite backed by an unstoppable support squad. The race, won by Pogačar’s domestique Juri Hollmann on the final stage, underscored the depth of Pogačar’s team and the challenges facing rivals in the coming Tour. With Pogačar himself finishing second overall—just 15 seconds behind Hollmann—fans hoping for a wide-open three-way battle between Pogačar, Jonas Vingegaard, and Mathieu van der Poel may find their expectations dashed.
While Hollmann’s victory was the headline, the broader picture painted at the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes was one of a systematic dismantling of the competition. Pogačar’s teammates secured podium finishes in the top three, with Jan Polanc and Blaž Rogelj rounding out the top five. The message was clear: no rider outside Pogačar’s Jumbo-Visma squad stood a chance in the race’s most demanding stages.
For Tour de France observers, the implications are stark. The 2024 edition, starting July 6 in Bilbao, was already expected to be a battle between Pogačar, Vingegaard, and Van der Poel. But the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes results suggest Pogačar’s team is not just competitive—it is overwhelmingly so. “This isn’t just about Pogačar’s climbing,” said Pogačar’s coach, Matej Mohorič, in a post-race interview. “It’s about the entire team’s ability to control the race from start to finish.”
Why the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes Results Matter for the Tour de France
The Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes served as a key indicator for the 2024 Tour de France, offering a glimpse into how teams are shaping up ahead of the Grand Départ. Here’s what the results reveal:
- Pogačar’s team is a machine. With Hollmann’s stage win and Pogačar’s overall victory, Jumbo-Visma demonstrated an ability to dominate in both individual and team efforts. This suggests Pogačar’s support squad—including Hollmann, Polanc, and Rogelj—will play a decisive role in the Tour.
- Vingegaard’s team is under pressure. While Jumbo-Visma’s dominance was on full display, Team Jumbo-Visma’s rival, Visma-Lease a Bike (Vingegaard’s team), finished with no podium placements. This raises questions about whether Vingegaard’s squad can match Pogačar’s depth in the coming Tour stages.
- Van der Poel’s team remains a wild card. Mathieu van der Poel’s Visma-Lease a Bike team did not compete in the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, leaving their readiness for the Tour de France untested. Van der Poel, known for his versatility, could still disrupt Pogačar’s plans—but his team’s lack of recent race exposure adds an element of uncertainty.
- Smaller teams face an uphill battle. Riders from UAE Team Emirates, Bora-Hansgrohe, and other mid-tier squads will need to rely on tactical brilliance rather than sheer power to challenge Pogačar and Vingegaard.
What the Results Say About the 2024 Tour de France
The Tour de France has long been defined by its unpredictability, but the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes results suggest that 2024 may be different. Here’s how:
1. Pogačar’s dominance is not just about climbing. While Pogačar is widely regarded as the best climber in the world, his team’s ability to control the race from the outset—through Hollmann’s stage win and Polanc’s consistent placings—indicates a strategic depth that few teams can match. This could translate into a race where Pogačar sets the pace, leaving rivals scrambling to respond.
2. Vingegaard’s team may struggle to keep up. Vingegaard, the 2022 Tour de France champion, has been building toward a rematch with Pogačar. However, his Visma-Lease a Bike team’s performance at the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes—where they failed to secure a podium—suggests they may lack the firepower to challenge Pogačar’s squad directly. This could force Vingegaard into a more defensive role, potentially opening the door for Van der Poel to emerge as the third contender.
3. Van der Poel’s versatility could be the key. Unlike Pogačar and Vingegaard, who are primarily climbers, Van der Poel is a complete rider, excelling in time trials, flat stages, and mountains. His ability to adapt to different terrains could make him the only rider capable of consistently challenging Pogačar. However, his team’s absence from the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes leaves their readiness for the Tour in question.
4. The race could hinge on time trials. With Pogačar’s team demonstrating such control in the mountains, the Tour de France’s time trials—particularly the Stage 10 individual time trial—could become decisive. Van der Poel, who won the 2023 Tour de France time trial, will be a major threat if he can replicate his form.
Who Stands to Gain—or Lose—from Pogačar’s Team Dominance?
The Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes results have clear winners and losers heading into the Tour de France:
- Winners:
- Tadej Pogačar – His team’s dominance reinforces his status as the favorite, giving him the confidence to attack early in the race.
- Juri Hollmann – The domestique’s stage win suggests he is ready to play a key role in supporting Pogačar, potentially even challenging for stage victories in his own right.
- Tour de France viewers – While a closed race may disappoint some, Pogačar’s athleticism and drama are guaranteed to deliver high-stakes moments.
- Losers:
- Jonas Vingegaard – His team’s struggles in the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes could force him into a reactive role, limiting his ability to dictate the race.
- Smaller teams – Riders from mid-tier squads will need to rely on breakaways and tactical moves rather than direct challenges to Pogačar.
- Fans hoping for an open race – The results suggest Pogačar’s team is too strong for a three-way battle, potentially leading to a more predictable outcome.
What Happens Next: Key Dates and Developments
The Tour de France begins on July 6 in Bilbao, Spain, with the first stages offering a glimpse into how the peloton will shape up. Key dates to watch:
- July 6–8 – The opening stages in the Basque Country will test riders’ fitness and set the tone for the race.
- July 12–14 – The first mountain stages in the Pyrenees will be critical for Pogačar and Vingegaard, with Van der Poel looking to assert himself.
- July 20–22 – The Alps stages will likely see Pogačar’s team in full control, but Van der Poel could disrupt expectations.
- July 27 – The final time trial in Paris will determine the overall winner, with Pogačar, Vingegaard, and Van der Poel battling for the yellow jersey.
For now, the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes has set the stage for a Tour de France where Pogačar’s team will be the force to beat. Whether that leads to a dominant victory or a tightly contested finale remains to be seen—but one thing is clear: the race will be shaped by Jumbo-Visma’s ability to control every stage.
As the peloton prepares for the Grand Départ, the question remains: Can anyone stop Pogačar’s machine? The answer may come sooner than expected.
Watch: Highlights from Juri Hollmann’s stage-winning performance at the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes
Share your thoughts: Will Pogačar’s team dominance lead to a predictable Tour de France, or will Van der Poel’s versatility disrupt expectations? Leave your predictions in the comments below.