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When the asteroid named Apophis was discovered, scientists gave a 2.9% chance that it would hit our Earth. Moreover, not sometime in the distant future, but a few years from now: in 2029. The chance of this impact is very important: this speeding space rock has a diameter of 340 meters, so it could cause enormous destruction anywhere on Earth. That is why the scientists began to carefully examine and calculate its possible trajectory and the possibility of its collision with other celestial bodies, which could tilt it from this trajectory.
Article from LadBible according to theoretically, our Earth will encounter this asteroid twice. First in 2029 as mentioned above and then again in 2036. But according to current calculations, this “meeting” will fortunately be far away: almost 37,400 kilometers will separate us. But how much is that? It is roughly as long as the length of the Earth’s equator (40,075 km), but much smaller than, for example, the Earth-Moon distance, which is 384 thousand kilometers.
So, on a spatial scale, it is not a long distance and even something “small” can modify the trajectory of Apophis, which can bring this 340-meter-diameter asteroid closer to causing a catastrophe on Earth. It is no coincidence that when this celestial body was found 20 years ago, it was still considered one of the most dangerous in terms of a possible collision.
They looked to see if anything could change the asteroid’s orbit
Paul Wiegert, a researcher at Western University in London, looked into whether the asteroid could collide with another celestial body between 2029 and 2036, altering its trajectory enough to cause an impact event afterwards. They examined 1.3 million known asteroids with Benjamin Hyatt from the University of Waterloo, calculating the various odds. And their article about the results was recently published in the Planetary Science Journal.
Wiegert reassured everyone in this, because he described that the orbits of all known asteroids have been tracked with the help of a computer and there is no chance of any trajectory-changing encounters. Apophis’ closest encounter with another object, 4544 Xanthus, will be in December 2026, but even then they will be separated by 10,000 kilometers.
However, if there is companion material surrounding Xanthus, it can encounter Apophis.
But the best chance is that, according to previous calculations, Apophis will pass by our Earth at a safe distance of more than 37,000 kilometers in both 2029 and 2036. The former 2.7% impact chance is therefore set to zero by the researchers today, of course they constantly monitor the asteroid’s movement, because they can never be too careful.
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Opening image: depositphotos.com
