“A rumor is circulating about an alliance already formed for the elections and we note a significant absence”

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Vooruit proposed 20 billion euros in savings, taxes and reforms during the next legislature. Is it surprising for socialists to be stricter on the country’s budget?

Vooruit is the Flemish party which has repositioned itself the most in recent years. Whether on the socio-economic level or on the cultural level, the training of Melissa overtakes made a movement towards the right or the center, while retaining the spirit of the left. The Flemish socialists play on both axes. We also see it in their positions on migration or crime. We can almost say that in Flanders, Vooruit occupies the central position of the CD&V.

Vooruit remains on the left, but is much less left than the PS. We have clearly observed, between 2019 and 2024, that the two socialist parties have moved away from each other. The PS has practically not evolved and remains a party very established on the left.

Wu said better form in the polls than Vooruitis the PS developing a more profitable strategy?

Conner Rousseau went from complete unknown to Flemish people’s third favorite political figure. He really propelled his party higher in the polls. Vooruit’s current fall is not really linked to his ideological repositioning, but rather to the fact that Rousseau is no longer the president of the party. This affair of racism which struck Rousseau did a lot of harm to the political party.

The PS and its positions sometimes close to those of the PTB still seem to irritate the north of the country…

One might have expected the PS, whose main threat is the PTB, to take a hard left turn. Parties tend to move closer to their challenger to counter their growing power. But that wasn’t the case. And it’s surprising! In reality, the PS remained firm in its positions between 2019 and 2024, according to our data. Socialists did not try to be more left than the far left. They remained on rather left-centrist positions at the socio-economic level. The question is whether it did them any good. We still see signs of relaxation in Wallonia. It’s very light, but still there. But Paul Magnette’s party remains strong.

Paul Magnette, the race in the lead

We see the PS also placing security at the center of his campaign, particularly in Brussels. Does this surprise you?

No, this is not a first. Louis Tobback also made it a campaign theme at the time. This must be seen as security in the broad sense, not only in terms of crime, but also in terms of existence and income. And then, socialists highlight the fact that those who suffer the most from crime are not the richest people. It is the poorest neighborhoods that are penalized more. It is therefore logical that the left leads this firm fight against crime. It is also observed in other countries.

Tuesday morning, Paul Magnette again attacked the MR on its position on Gaza and on its refusal to recognize the State of Palestine. Could this make liberals lose their feathers?

What importance will Gaza have in the Belgians’ choice on June 9? Even if we see demonstrations breaking out in universities to defend Palestine and even if we feel that the subject is attracting more and more attention, I doubt that this will influence the votes much. These are fairly symbolic positions. But these are not questions that affect the Belgians’ wallets. All this is happening very far away.

In Brussels, the MR met some difficulties following his positions on the subject in certain neighborhoods…

The question is how many votes the MR gets in these neighborhoods at the moment. I guess it’s not much. Of course, politicians feel hostility or approval of their positions in their daily contacts during the campaign. And it is possible that, in neighborhoods where a large Muslim population lives, MR candidates are less well received. But if we look at the population as a whole, the subject does not take precedence over all other more concrete considerations.

Green and green meet some difficulties in the countryside. Are the Greens missing out on this election?

The Greens are a little on the defensive. They were in government and apparently betrayed their principles a little in the context of some crucial issues such as nuclear power. Groen has been heavily attacked in recent days by Bouchez in the Flemish media on this topic. It’s about manipulation and lies. Environmentalists find themselves in the same situation as in 2004. They were in power and then they were criticized by all the other partners. The Greens have been described as a party with which one cannot compromise, a party of fundamentalists. Ecolo benefits from a very negative, very radical image in Flanders, from which Groen suffers since the two parties want to present themselves as the same political family.

Groen is therefore on the defensive and attacked from all sides. Bart De Wever went so far as to say that their ideology was the worst he could imagine… The situation is therefore complicated for the environmentalist party. Unlike what is happening in Wallonia, where the right criticizes both Ecolo and the PS, in the north of the country, it is mainly Groen who is targeted by the right, not Vooruit.

Groen seems rather absent in this campaign…

I wouldn’t say that. They are probably as present as before. Or at least they communicate as much as before. We also need to see what we consider to be the campaign: what is happening on social networks? The posters ? The media? On the other hand, it is clear that the environment and climate which are the spearhead of Groen occupy a much less important place in the campaign. In 2019, it was different, many climate protests were organized, we felt real interest. At present, Belgians are mainly interested in the socio-economic aspect and migration. However, these are areas where Groen and Ecolo are much less present and credible. In other words, the current situation is not really favorable to the Greens.

Bart De Wever pulls in all directions in this campaign. Will it still be possible for him to find partners to form a possible coalition the day after June 9?

The president of the N-VA is better at campaigning than at negotiations. He excels at highlighting the differences with other parties, criticizing everyone. He is very strong. But very aggressive. It is clear that this will not help the party going forward. The N-VA has never really invested in preparing the formation of the government. Creating links, exchanging, preparing the ground… Bart De Wever almost doesn’t do it. There is a rumor about an alliance of the CD&V, the Engagés, the MR and the Open Vld. They would have formed a sort of centrist coalition. The fact that the N-VA is not mentioned speaks volumes. This party could align perfectly with the other four in terms of content. So the problem is not there. But rather in the way the N-VA campaigns, which is very confrontational.

It’s always been the case, but I feel like it’s even stronger than before. We observe a sort of fatigue, frustration and disappointment in De Wever’s statements, which only increases the distance with other political groups, instead of reducing it. The N-VA isolates itself even more than before. Afterwards, it must also be emphasized that this party has no natural partner. The PS has Vooruit, the MR has the Open Vld, the Engagés have the CD&V, but the N-VA has no one on the other side of the linguistic border. The situation is therefore, whatever happens, more complicated for the training of Bart De Wever when it comes to finding partners. This is a real disadvantage.