The British prime minister failed miserably, but the Labor Party cannot be completely satisfied either

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Even though the British Parliament voted to deport refugees to Rwanda before the municipal elections on May 2, this popular decision did not save Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party from a huge defeat. The Tories suffered significant defeats from the Labor Party, which is a very bad sign before the parliamentary elections, which are expected to be held in the autumn. However, there is no cheering mood on the left either – for example, because they are just now losing the support of one of the voters who traditionally sympathize with the Labor Party.

Nothing can stand in our way

he declared Rishi Sunak after one of his main campaign promises was voted in April: in the future, migrants arriving in Great Britain will be deported by plane to Rwanda without first being able to apply for asylum (the first arrests have already they happened). The British Prime Minister made his statement after the extremely expensive but a potentially ineffective plan it has failed twice before – once by the British Supreme Court and once by the European Court of Human Rights.

Sunak didn’t really hide that he wanted to use the popularity of the Rwanda plan to ensure his survival as prime minister, and on the other hand, to mitigate the defeat of the Conservative Party in the municipal elections scheduled for May 2 and the parliamentary elections expected to be held in the fall.

Hopes

On May 2, millions of voters went to the polls in the local elections in England and Wales. It’s basically leftist, but Boris Johnson His 2019 win In the Blackpool South electoral district, which fell into the hands of the Conservatives, a by-election was held. And in London, the main question was whether the Labor party would be voted in as mayor for a third time. Sadiq Khantand what mandate ratio is formed in the general meeting.

Leader of the Labor Party Keir Starmer rightly trusted the pollsters’ predictions, as the surveys indicated a 20 percentage point advantage for them over the Tories. For now, there is no sign of serious enthusiasm on the left, and not only because of Starmer’s political style, but also because of the state of the country’s economy, and it is not yet known for sure how much the party has alienated the Muslim communities that traditionally support the Labor Party with its attitude to the war in Gaza.

Sunak hoped that the Tories would be able to keep some key mayoral seats, so that his mandate as prime minister and his candidacy for prime minister in the next election would not become uncertain. Several factors played a role in the Conservative Party’s downfall:

UK PARLIAMENT / AFP – British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak speaks in the House of Commons in London on May 1, 2024.

It was previously thought that the mayoral elections in the West Midlands and Tees Valley in North-East England could be the key to Sun’s stay. If indeed Andy Street and Ben Houchen conservative mayors persist, then presumably the dissatisfied Tories will not overthrow the prime minister.

However, even conservative observers do predictedthat they will lose at least 400 of the almost 1,000 council positions they hold, although this is related to the fact that they won big in 2021 due to the popularity of the early introduction of coronavirus vaccines.

Results

In Blackpool South – where the previous MP had to resign because was made publicthat in exchange for money he offered to lobby and leak secret documents to journalists posing as gambling industry investors – the new Tory candidate suffered a crushing defeat.

The Labor Party Chris Webb it won 20.6 percentage points more than in 2019, a total of almost 60 percent of the votes, while the conservatives lost 32 percentage points.

Then came the further results, including the Labor party winning an absolute majority in many city councils. In Plymouth, which has a population of almost 300,000, for example, losing 13 of the 19 available council seats the Tories could only keep one.

Nor did it improve the mood of the conservatives much when it was revealed around noon on Friday: Ben Houchen will remain the mayor in Tees Valley, although he lost a fifth of his votes in 2019 (the Labor Party gained 16 percent here). However, there was bad news about the location of the other key election: in the West Midlands, the current Tory mayor, Andy Street, won, albeit narrowly.

Overall The Tories lost 11 regional mayoral elections – all except Tees Valley – including York and North Yorkshire, which includes the prime minister’s constituency, control of ten councils and 473 seats, while Labor won 185 , moreover, their politicians came to power in councils that had been in the hands of the Tories for decades, and they had no chance of winning here before.

Fairly smooth won Khan is also facing his Tory challenger in London. It won 43.8 percent of the votes (this is 3.8 percentage points more than in 2021), while the conservative Susan Hall collected 32.7 percent of the votes (this is 2.6 percent less than what his party partner obtained three years ago, Shaun Bailey).

What about the Tories now?

It is not yet known how the Tories will recover from this slap. In Great Britain, it almost entirely depends on the Prime Minister when the parliamentary election is called. The term can last for a maximum of five years, but the head of government has the right to dissolve the parliament at any time (for example, if his party is doing well according to public opinion polls) and hold a new election. After the adoption of the Rwanda plan, it was even suggested that, riding on the success, Sun could even bring forward the date of the election to June, which he previously promised for autumn – but it must be held at the beginning of 2025 at the latest.

In addition to the earliest summer date, it is said that this way Sun would be able to prevent a coup d’état within the party.

There has also been a scenario that Sunak will be quickly replaced as the leader of the party, and maybe someone else can bring the Tories back into the race by January. The fear is understandable, just look at the vote held in Blackpool South, where 117 call (by 0.7 percentage points) it happened that David Jones not only from the Labor party’s Webb, but also from the candidate of the EU-skeptic, radical party, By Mark Butcher ice kikapion.

By the way, Sunak was able to become prime minister precisely because a more moderate policy was expected from him, both from Johnson, who paid little attention to moral considerations, and from Truss, who quickly failed with his economic fundamentalism.

Then, during his administration, Sunak became more and more populist – partly due to the fear of the extreme right – despite this, the popularity of Reform UK has continued to grow recently, becoming a party with double-digit support by 2024. The moderates within the Conservative Party would prefer to see a more centrist policy, but those on the right wing of the party are advocating a more drastic approach than before, for example in the refugee issue.

HENRY NICHOLLS / AFP – Metropolitan Police officers arrest protesters who gather around a bus allegedly waiting to take migrants and asylum seekers from a hotel in south London on May 2, 2024.

According to a recent survey, more than half of Tory supporters believe that Sunak should not lead the party in the next election. But who could the Conservative Party replace him with?

One possible candidate Penny Mordaunt, whose name has been mentioned before has emerged possible Prime Minister to succeed Johnson and Truss. He is currently the leader of the House of Commons, and that says: it will not replace Sunak any more than “a boiler” is replaced in 10 Downing Street.

Presumably, it doesn’t make much sense for someone else to take over the position of Prime Minister from Sunak now, since they can hardly avoid the iceberg, so it would be best for all future aspirants if Sunak steered the ship until the collision, and only then would someone else take over the leadership of the party from him.

In hindsight, it is now better to let him stay in office and take the brunt of the expected defeat, while his successors position themselves for what happens after Labour’s presumably landslide victory

said the New York Timesnak Matthew Goodwina political scientist at the University of Kent, who also acted as a consultant to the Conservative Party.

A key aspect in the evaluation of local elections is the expectations a party set for itself in the campaign. With the fact that the Conservative Party lost roughly as many councilor seats as it had previously predicted, and that it managed to keep one of the two key regions, it is likely that the prime minister who leads the party can remain in his post.

Will the left win in the parliamentary election?

In addition, it does not automatically follow from the success of the local government elections that the Labor Party is also present in the parliamentary voting.

Tony Blair For example, tactical voting contributed to his overwhelming victory in 1997. In the British electoral system, the “winner takes all” principle works, so the candidate who receives the most votes wins the mandate (there is no compensation list), so in the parliamentary election, those who would otherwise like to vote for smaller parties, vote for the most likely party. The results of the local elections are influenced by the familiarity of the candidates, and basically smaller, regional matters are at stake.

The biggest risk for Labor at the moment is that they may lose the sympathy of traditionally left-wing Muslims who are dissatisfied with the party’s pro-Israel policies. In recent months, the proportion of people voting for the Labor Party has fallen by almost 18 percent in areas of England where more than a fifth of people identify as Muslim.

In the West Midlands, for example, it is in third place Akhmed Yakoob an independent candidate ran – and won 43,000 votes – who focused his campaign mostly on the Palestinians suffering in Gaza.

Furthermore, it should not be ignored that the turnout in local elections is lower compared to the national one, which also makes it difficult to draw clear conclusions about the expected results of the parliamentary election from the May voting.