Analysts: Biden is weak and Netanyahu will go further than Washington imagines Program news

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The US administration’s decision to suspend the delivery of a shipment of high-explosive munitions to Israel does not reflect a decline in American support for the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip as much as it is an attempt to distance itself from massacres that the president may not be able to do. joe biden It bears its repercussions, analysts say.

The US Secretary of Defense announced Lloyd Austin At a hearing before Congress Suspending the shipment of ammunition due to concerns regarding the fate of civilians in Rafah city South Gaza stripBut at the same time, he said that Washington had not taken a final decision regarding the fate of this shipment.

The American move indicates – according to the former official in the Ministry of Defense Pentagon Michael Monroy – The Biden administration rejected a “large-scale operation” in Rafah, especially since the weapons Israel obtained during this war “were not used in a manner that respected American laws, especially in Gaza City.”

During his participation in the program “Gaza… What Next?”, Monroy said that Austin’s talk about the decision not being final “means that it is linked to Rafah, and it may be to put pressure on Israel to move forward with the prisoner deal.”

A harsh criticism of Washington

Despite the disagreements affecting the Israeli war government, the recent American decision sparked harsh criticism from the party Benny Gantz -Prime Minister’s discount Benjamin Netanyahu The arch-enemy who is described as Washington’s man in the war council – which reflects the Israeli consensus on the Rafah process, says Ihab Jabareen, an expert on Israeli affairs.

Jabareen believes that this position confirms the fact that obtaining full and unconditional American support in this war “enjoys Israeli consensus,” and reflects that the differences are over daily war strategies and not over the war itself.

Therefore, Netanyahu will go further than the United States can imagine in this war, especially since he still controls everything inside Israel to this day, according to Jabareen, who believes that Washington “will not approach the strategic lines with Israel in the end.” “.

In turn, political analyst Ahmed Al-Haila says that the United States does not disagree with the Rafah operation, but rather provides Netanyahu with the opportunity to achieve everything he wants from this war.

As for the decision to suspend the ammunition shipment, it “relates to a limited deal that may lead to massacres against civilians that the Biden administration will not tolerate, especially since it knows that Netanyahu used all types of weapons without any red lines,” in Al-Hila’s opinion.

Austin also – the spokesman adds – “confirmed full support for the Rafah operation and said that the differences related to the method, as well as the use of the goal of eliminating the Islamic Resistance Movement.” agitation To do everything in the sector.”

Also, the talk of American officials that Hamas did not agree to the truce proposal, but rather made some amendments to it, “reflects a retreat from the Biden administration, and makes it appear as if it is giving Netanyahu a green light to enter Rafah,” according to the spokesman.

Not only that, but the behavior of the United States after Hamas accepted the truce proposal “seems to give Netanyahu an opportunity to enter new negotiations, along with controlling all crossings and imposing a new form of management of the Strip in the future,” says the political analyst.

On the other hand, Monroy believes that the Biden administration wants an immediate halt to this war, but it does not have the power to impose this matter on the Israeli War Council, expressing his belief that the mediators may come up with a new proposal that combines the requirements of both parties in the coming days.

Israel is at a crossroads

From Jabareen’s point of view, Israel is currently standing at a crossroads because it must quickly decide either entering Rafah or the prisoner deal, noting that “Tel Aviv’s problem is that it does not know how it will get out of Rafah if it continues the war, nor how it will get out of the deal if it accepts.” “So she has not made a final decision.”

But Jabareen believes that there is a misreading of Netanyahu’s actions during this period, saying, “He is not only looking to prolong the war, but rather for a right-wing strategic goal that represents part of his right-wing political make-up, in addition to the fact that his opponents in the war council have not yet proven that they stand against his plans.” seriously”.

Jabareen adds that the continuation of the war is a matter of political and popular consensus within Israel, and that the whole issue relates to recovering the prisoners and then continuing the fighting, stressing that “Israeli society never moves from moral standpoints, and does not care about the crimes committed in Gaza.”

Even the army and security institutions sometimes show a willingness to go along with Netanyahu’s desire to prolong the war because they will also be held accountable in the end, Jabareen says.

A year-long process

Hours after Washington announced the decision to suspend the ammunition shipment, Yedioth Ahronoth quoted sources that the war government approved a year-long operation in Rafah.

Commenting on this leak, Monroy said that the Biden administration has no choice but to suspend some arms shipments or refrain from using its veto in the Security Council or pressuring Israel through the United Nations in the event that Netanyahu decides to enter a long-term war in Rafah.

As for the trick, he believes that talk about a long-term operation in Rafah “confirms that Netanyahu wants a new administration for the Rafah crossing completely away from Hamas and the search for someone to receive aid and deliver it to the population under the umbrella of Israel.”

He concluded the trick by saying that Netanyahu “is changing the contexts with American approval because Biden is very weak before him, the Zionist lobbies, and Congress, which supports Israel as a whole,” stressing that what is coming “will not be the imposition of a military reality, but rather a political reality, which means that the Palestinians have no choice but confrontation.”