Apple is currently operating from a position of unprecedented strength in the global smartphone landscape. According to the latest data from Counterpoint Research, the company claimed the top spot in the global smartphone market for the first time during a first quarter, securing a 21% market share and achieving 5% year-over-year growth in Q1 2026 via 9to5Mac. This surge comes despite a challenging macroeconomic environment and a widespread industry slump caused by a critical shortage of DRAM and NAND memory.
Although the current success of the iPhone 17 series has solidified Apple’s lead, the company is reportedly preparing to disrupt an entirely new category. Market forecasts suggest that Apple is poised to enter the foldable smartphone market this autumn, a move that could fundamentally reshape the competitive dynamics of the high-end device sector, particularly in North America.
The anticipated entry, centered around a device potentially named the “iPhone Ultra,” is expected to leverage Apple’s characteristic “ecosystem stickiness” and premium branding to capture a massive segment of the foldable market almost immediately. For competitors who have spent years establishing a foothold in folding screens, this represents a significant strategic threat.
The North American Foldable Market Shakeup
Counterpoint Research has issued a bold projection regarding Apple’s impact on the Apple foldable smartphone market share within North America. The research firm predicts that by 2026, Apple could seize up to 46% of the total foldable market in the region via heise online. This rapid ascent would be fueled by the launch of the iPhone Ultra, which is expected to arrive as early as September.
The introduction of a foldable iPhone is not expected to merely shift existing demand but to expand the category itself. Counterpoint suggests that the foldable market could grow by up to 48% compared to the previous year, driven largely by the prestige and demand associated with Apple’s first foray into the form factor.
This growth, however, would likely come at the direct expense of established players. The projected shift in North American market share for 2026 highlights a stark decline for current leaders:
- Samsung: Predicted to see its market share drop from 51% down to 29%.
- Motorola: Predicted to see its share of the Razr-led market plummet from 44% to 23%.
- Google: Predicted to see a shrink from 5% to 3% for its Pixel Fold series.
While Samsung remains better positioned globally in the foldable space and is reportedly planning its own “pass-like” foldable device to compete with Apple, the North American stronghold is particularly vulnerable to Apple’s brand loyalty.
Resilience Amidst a Global Component Crisis
Apple’s ability to launch a complex new product like a foldable phone is bolstered by its current resilience against industry-wide headwinds. The broader smartphone market has recently suffered from a “memory crisis”—a severe shortage of DRAM and NAND memory that has forced many original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to scale back shipments or pass increased Bills of Material (BOM) costs to consumers via 9to5Mac.
Apple has remained the most insulated brand during this crisis. This stability is attributed to two primary factors: its ultra-premium market positioning and a highly integrated supply chain. While other vendors saw shipment drops of up to 19%, Apple’s shipments grew by 5% in Q1 2026, demonstrating a capacity to maintain volume even when components are scarce.
This operational stability is critical for the launch of the iPhone Ultra. Foldable devices require specialized components and rigorous quality control; Apple’s ability to navigate supply chain disruptions more effectively than its peers suggests it can scale a foldable rollout without the shipment bottlenecks that have plagued other brands.
Strategic Momentum from the iPhone 17
The path to a foldable future is being paved by the current success of the iPhone 17 series. Strong demand for these devices, combined with aggressive trade-in programs, has maintained high volume growth in key Asia-Pacific markets, including China, India, and Japan via 9to5Mac.
By dominating the traditional slab-phone market first, Apple creates a seamless upgrade path for its users. The “ecosystem stickiness” mentioned by Counterpoint ensures that users already embedded in iOS are more likely to transition to a foldable iPhone than to switch to a Samsung or Google device, regardless of how long those competitors have been in the foldable space.
This strategy mirrors Apple’s historical approach: enter a category later than competitors, refine the user experience, and use brand equity to capture the majority of the premium market share. The predicted 46% share in North America is a testament to this “late-mover advantage.”
Comparison of Predicted North American Foldable Market Share (2026)
| Manufacturer | Current/Previous Share | Predicted 2026 Share |
|---|---|---|
| Apple (iPhone Ultra) | 0% | Up to 46% |
| Samsung | 51% | 29% |
| Motorola | 44% | 23% |
| 5% | 3% |
The next confirmed checkpoint for the industry will be the typical September window, where Apple traditionally unveils its new hardware lineup. While official confirmation of the “iPhone Ultra” is still pending from Apple, the market is bracing for a shift that could redefine the premium smartphone category.
Do you reckon a foldable iPhone will finally push you to switch devices, or is the folding form factor still a niche luxury? Share your thoughts in the comments below.