Brexit’s Broken Promises: How Boris Johnson’s Key Pledges Unraveled Five Years On
Lisbon — Five years after the United Kingdom officially left the European Union, the political landscape surrounding Brexit has shifted dramatically. What was once hailed as a triumph of national sovereignty by its most vocal advocates—including former Prime Minister Boris Johnson—has now become a subject of growing public skepticism. Recent polling shows that support for Brexit has reached its lowest point since the 2016 referendum, with only three in ten Britons believing it was the right decision. Even among those who originally voted to depart, one in six now express regret, according to a YouGov survey conducted in early 2026.
Johnson, a central figure in the Leave campaign, had promised a future of regained control over borders, laws, and economic prosperity. Yet, as the UK grapples with the realities of post-Brexit life, many of those assurances have failed to materialize—or have been overshadowed by unintended consequences. From immigration figures that defy expectations to economic challenges that persist, the gap between what was promised and what has been delivered has become impossible to ignore.
This article examines the key pledges made by Johnson and his allies during the Brexit campaign, how they were presented to the public, and what the data now reveals about their outcomes. With the UK still navigating its new relationship with the EU, the echoes of those promises continue to shape political discourse—and public opinion.
The £350 Million NHS Pledge: A Promise That Never Materialized
One of the most iconic—and controversial—promises of the Leave campaign was the claim that Brexit would free up £350 million per week for the National Health Service (NHS). The figure, emblazoned on the side of the campaign’s red bus, became a symbol of the economic benefits Brexit supporters argued would follow the UK’s departure from the EU. Johnson himself frequently invoked the pledge, framing it as a direct financial windfall that would bolster the country’s struggling healthcare system.
In his Christmas Eve speech in 2020, Johnson celebrated the newly agreed trade deal with the EU, emphasizing that the UK was now “taking back control” of its money, borders, and laws. Yet, despite the fanfare, the £350 million pledge never materialized in the way it was presented. While NHS funding has increased since Brexit—particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic—there is no evidence that the UK’s former contributions to the EU were redirected to the health service in the manner suggested.
In fact, Brexit has introduced new challenges for the NHS. Post-Brexit red tape has contributed to drug shortages, while the UK’s departure from the EU has led to a sharp decline in the number of nurses arriving from EU countries. According to data from the Nursing and Midwifery Council, the number of EU-trained nurses joining the UK register fell by nearly 90% between 2016 and 2022. This decline has exacerbated existing staffing shortages, undermining one of the central arguments for Brexit: that leaving the EU would allow the UK to better manage its healthcare resources.
“Taking Back Control” of Borders: Immigration Soars to Record Highs
Another cornerstone of the Leave campaign was the promise to “take back control” of the UK’s borders. Johnson and other Brexit supporters argued that leaving the EU would allow the UK to reduce immigration and implement a points-based system that prioritized skills over free movement. The rhetoric was clear: Brexit would curb the “uncontrolled” flow of migrants into the country and restore sovereignty over immigration policy.
Yet, the reality has been starkly different. Since the UK officially left the EU in January 2020, net migration has surged to record levels. In 2023, the UK saw a net migration figure of 900,000—nearly four times higher than the 248,000 recorded in 2016, the year of the referendum. This sharp increase has defied the expectations of Brexit supporters, many of whom had predicted that leaving the EU would lead to a significant reduction in immigration.
The new points-based immigration system, which Johnson touted as a key benefit of Brexit, has not stemmed the flow of migrants. Instead, the UK has seen a rise in non-EU migration, particularly from countries like India, Nigeria, and China. Critics argue that the system has failed to address labor shortages in key sectors, such as healthcare and agriculture, while also creating new bureaucratic hurdles for businesses. The Home Office has acknowledged that the system is still evolving, but the initial promise of “taking back control” has yet to translate into the outcomes many Leave voters expected.
Economic Independence: Trade Deals and the Reality of Global Competition
Beyond immigration and healthcare, Johnson’s Brexit vision included a bold economic agenda. The former prime minister frequently emphasized the UK’s ability to strike independent trade deals with countries around the world, free from the constraints of EU regulations. In his 2020 speech, he highlighted the UK’s progress in securing agreements with 58 countries, framing these deals as evidence of the country’s newfound economic independence.
But, the economic benefits of these trade deals have been modest at best. While the UK has signed agreements with nations like Australia, New Zealand, and Japan, the overall impact on the economy has been limited. According to a report from the UK Office for National Statistics, the trade deals secured since Brexit have contributed less than 0.1% to the UK’s GDP. Meanwhile, trade with the EU—a bloc that remains the UK’s largest trading partner—has faced new barriers, including tariffs, customs checks, and regulatory divergence.
The UK’s departure from the EU has also had a noticeable impact on foreign investment. A Financial Times analysis found that the UK’s share of global foreign direct investment (FDI) fell from 11% in 2016 to just 5% in 2023. Businesses have cited Brexit-related uncertainty and increased costs as key factors in their decision to scale back or relocate investments. For many industries, the promise of a “Global Britain” has yet to materialize in tangible economic gains.
The Political Fallout: Johnson’s Legacy and the Future of Brexit
Boris Johnson’s role in the Brexit campaign and its aftermath has left an indelible mark on his political legacy. Once a towering figure in the Conservative Party, Johnson’s tenure as prime minister was marked by both triumph and controversy. His leadership during the Brexit negotiations secured a trade deal with the EU, but his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and the “Partygate” scandal ultimately led to his resignation in 2022. Today, Johnson remains a polarizing figure, with his reputation closely tied to the promises—and perceived failures—of Brexit.
Public opinion on Brexit has shifted significantly since the referendum. A YouGov poll from April 2026 found that 55% of Britons now believe leaving the EU was the wrong decision, while only 30% still support it. The shift in sentiment has been driven by a combination of economic challenges, immigration trends, and the ongoing difficulties of navigating a post-Brexit world. Even among Conservative voters, support for Brexit has waned, with many now questioning the long-term benefits of the UK’s departure from the EU.
For Johnson, the backlash against Brexit has been particularly damaging. Once seen as the architect of the UK’s new path, he now faces criticism from both sides of the political spectrum. Some of his former allies, including business leaders and economists, have accused him of overselling the benefits of Brexit while downplaying its challenges. Meanwhile, opponents of Brexit have seized on the growing disillusionment to argue for closer ties with the EU, including the possibility of rejoining the single market or customs union.
What’s Next for the UK and Brexit?
As the UK continues to grapple with the consequences of Brexit, the debate over its future relationship with the EU shows no signs of abating. The Labour Party, which currently leads in the polls, has ruled out rejoining the EU but has signaled a willingness to negotiate closer economic ties with Brussels. Meanwhile, the Conservative Party remains divided, with some members advocating for a more hardline approach to Brexit, while others push for a softer stance.
For now, the UK’s post-Brexit trajectory remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that the promises made by Johnson and other Leave campaigners have not been fully realized. The £350 million NHS pledge, the commitment to “take back control” of borders, and the vision of a thriving “Global Britain” have all faced significant challenges in the years since the referendum. As the UK moves forward, the legacy of Brexit—and the politicians who championed it—will continue to shape the country’s political and economic landscape.
The next major milestone in the UK’s post-Brexit journey will be the general election, expected later this year. With public opinion firmly against Brexit, the outcome of the election could determine whether the UK seeks to repair its relationship with the EU or doubles down on its current path. For now, the echoes of Johnson’s promises remain a powerful reminder of the gap between rhetoric and reality.
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