Colombia’s presidential election on June 29 pits Rodolfo Hernández, a populist billionaire backed by former president Donald Trump, against Francia Márquez, a leftist environmental activist and former justice minister. The runoff follows a first-round vote where neither candidate secured a majority, with Hernández leading by 1.4 points according to official results. The election marks a turning point for a nation still grappling with the legacy of decades of armed conflict, drug trafficking, and economic inequality.
Hernández, a 78-year-old self-made construction tycoon, has positioned himself as a hardline conservative, promising to crack down on crime and corruption while rejecting the 2016 peace accord with the FARC guerrillas. His campaign has drawn support from Trump, who endorsed him in a May 22 video message, calling him a “great guy” and praising his stance on immigration and security. Márquez, 44, represents a sharp contrast: a former land rights activist who rose to prominence through protests against Colombia’s extractive industries and systemic racism.
The stakes could not be higher. Colombia remains one of the world’s most unequal societies, with 27.8% of its 52 million people living in poverty and persistent violence in rural areas despite the FARC’s demobilization. Márquez’s campaign has vowed to expand social programs and renegotiate the peace accord to include other armed groups like the ELN and dissident FARC factions, while Hernández has pledged to prioritize military solutions over diplomacy.
With international observers warning of potential irregularities—including allegations of vote-buying and intimidation—this election will determine whether Colombia lurches further right or takes a bold leftward turn. The outcome will also send shockwaves through Latin America, where progressive governments in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico are watching closely.
Who Are the Candidates?
Rodolfo Hernández, the frontrunner in the first round, is a billionaire businessman who served as mayor of Bucaramanga from 2016 to 2019 before resigning amid corruption allegations. His campaign has focused on combating crime and restoring “order” to Colombia’s cities, where homicides surged by 20% in 2023. Hernández has criticized the peace accord as a “mistake” and vowed to negotiate with armed groups only if they lay down weapons first.
His running mate is María Fernanda Cabal, a former beauty queen and television host who has been a vocal critic of Colombia’s leftist governments. The duo’s campaign has been marked by controversies, including allegations that Hernández used campaign funds to pay off debts and that Cabal made racist remarks during a debate.
In contrast, Francia Márquez, a Black feminist activist, was elected to the Senate in 2022 as part of Gustavo Petro’s coalition. She gained international recognition for her landmark victory in a rural region plagued by drug trafficking and paramilitary violence. Márquez’s platform includes expanding social welfare programs, investing in renewable energy, and renegotiating the peace accord to address the needs of rural communities and former combatants.
Her running mate is Gustavo Petro, Colombia’s current president, who has faced growing criticism for his economic policies and struggles to pass key legislation. Petro, a former guerrilla turned politician, has framed the election as a choice between “peace with social justice” and “war with impunity.”
What’s at Stake?
The election hinges on three critical issues:
- Security and the Peace Accord: Colombia’s 2016 peace deal with the FARC ended a 52-year conflict that killed 220,000 people and displaced millions. Hernández has vowed to renegotiate the accord, while Márquez supports modifying it to include other armed groups. The United Nations has warned that abandoning the deal could reignite violence.
- Economic Inequality: Colombia’s Gini coefficient—0.51 in 2022—ranks among the highest in Latin America. Márquez’s campaign promises to increase taxes on the wealthy and expand healthcare, while Hernández has proposed tax cuts for businesses.
- Environmental Policy: Márquez, a former environmental activist, has pledged to protect Colombia’s Amazon rainforest and transition to renewable energy, while Hernández has supported expanding mining and oil drilling.
International observers, including the Organization of American States (OAS) and the European Union, have expressed concerns about potential irregularities, including reports of vote-buying and intimidation. The National Electoral Council has deployed 25,000 election officials to monitor polling stations.
How Did We Get Here?
Colombia’s political landscape has shifted dramatically in recent years. The 2016 peace accord with the FARC, brokered under former president Juan Manuel Santos, was a historic achievement but remains deeply controversial. While the deal reduced violence in some regions, dissident factions and new armed groups have filled the power vacuum, leading to a surge in killings of social leaders and former combatants.
Gustavo Petro’s election in 2022 marked the first time a leftist candidate won the presidency, but his government has struggled to pass key reforms amid economic challenges and rising crime. Hernández’s rise reflects growing public frustration with both the left and the traditional political class, as well as disillusionment with Petro’s policies.
The first-round vote on May 26 saw Hernández win 31.1% of the vote, while Márquez secured 28.7%. The runoff was triggered when neither candidate reached the 50% threshold. Third-place finisher Enrique “Cuchuco” Gómez, a conservative former mayor, won 18.3%, while independent candidate Álvaro Leyva Durán took 10.8%.
What Happens Next?
Voting will take place on June 29, with results expected to be announced within 24 hours. The National Electoral Council has set up a real-time results platform to track the vote. International observers, including the OAS and the EU, will monitor the process for irregularities.
If Hernández wins, he has pledged to renegotiate the peace accord and prioritize military solutions to crime. Márquez, if victorious, would seek to expand social programs and environmental protections, while facing pressure to deliver economic growth.
The outcome will have ripple effects across Latin America, where progressive movements are either gaining or losing ground. A Hernández victory could embolden right-wing leaders in Brazil and Mexico, while a Márquez win would strengthen Petro’s alliance with leftist governments in Argentina and Chile.
Key Takeaways
- Security vs. Social Justice: Hernández’s hardline stance on crime contrasts with Márquez’s focus on poverty reduction and peace negotiations.
- Economic Divide: Hernández proposes tax cuts for businesses, while Márquez aims to increase taxes on the wealthy to fund social programs.
- Environmental Policy: Márquez supports renewable energy and Amazon protection; Hernández backs mining and oil expansion.
- International Implications: The election could shift Latin America’s political balance, with global investors watching closely.
- Election Concerns: Reports of vote-buying and intimidation raise questions about the integrity of the process.
Next Steps: Results will be announced within 24 hours of the June 29 vote. The winning candidate will be inaugurated on August 7, 2024. For live updates, follow the National Electoral Council or OAS election monitoring.
This election is more than a choice between two candidates—it’s a referendum on Colombia’s future. As the country stands at a crossroads, the world watches to see whether it will embrace a return to hardline security policies or take a bold step toward social and environmental justice.
What do you think Colombia should prioritize in its next presidency? Share your thoughts in the comments below.