The populations of certain countries in Europe are expected to grow by 2100, but there will be a substantial drop on average across Europe, new predictions reveal. So which countries will see a population growth? According to the latest projections from Eurostat, released on 16 April 2025, the European Union’s population is projected to decline from about 452 million residents on 1 January 2025 to 399 million by 2100, a decrease of nearly 12 percent over the 75-year period.
This overall decline masks significant variation among individual countries. Even as the EU as a whole faces demographic contraction, nine EU member states, along with Norway, Iceland and Switzerland, are projected to experience population growth through 2100. These countries are bucking the broader trend of aging populations and low fertility rates that are driving decline across much of the continent.
The largest growth among EU member states is expected in Ireland and Sweden, with population increases projected to range between 10 and 20 percent by 2100. In Sweden, although deaths are expected to surpass births as early as next year and continue to rise thereafter, net migration is forecast to play a decisive role in sustaining population growth. Net migration to Sweden is projected to peak around 2031 before gradually declining in subsequent decades.
In Spain, population trends are also influenced by migration, though the dynamics differ. Currently, net migration—the difference between arrivals and departures—exceeds the natural increase from births minus deaths. However, this migratory advantage is expected to diminish significantly by the early 2030s, after which Spain’s population trajectory will depend more heavily on birth and death rates. The number of deaths in Spain is projected to peak around the mid-2060s, reflecting the aging of its population structure.
Norway, Iceland and Switzerland—though not EU members—are also included among the countries forecast to grow in population by 2100. These three European Free Trade Association (EFTA) states share demographic characteristics with the growing EU members, including reliance on net migration to offset negative natural change in some cases.
The Eurostat projections, known as EUROPOP2025, represent the latest baseline for population developments across 30 European countries: all 27 EU member states plus Iceland, Norway and Switzerland. The data uses population figures from 1 January 2025 as its starting point and models future trends based on assumptions about fertility, mortality and international migration.
These projections contrast with earlier estimates from Eurostat, which in the previous year had forecast a more modest 6 percent decline in the EU population by 2100 compared to 2022 levels. The revised outlook reflects updated assumptions about migration flows and life expectancy, resulting in a more pronounced long-term contraction for the bloc as a whole.
Despite the aggregate decline, the prospect of growth in specific countries highlights the uneven nature of Europe’s demographic future. Factors such as family-friendly policies, economic opportunities and openness to immigration vary significantly between nations, contributing to divergent population trajectories even within relatively close geographic proximity.
For policymakers, these projections underscore the importance of tailored approaches to demographic challenges. While some countries may need to focus on integrating migrants and supporting families to sustain growth, others will face increasing pressure on pension systems, healthcare services and labor markets as their populations age and shrink.
The EUROPOP2025 dataset is publicly available through Eurostat’s official website and provides detailed breakdowns by age, sex and country for each year from 2025 to 2100. Researchers, planners and journalists regularly leverage these projections to assess long-term social and economic trends across Europe.
As new data emerges and underlying assumptions are refined, Eurostat typically updates its population projections every few years. The next major revision is expected following the release of updated census data and migration statistics, though no exact date has been announced for the subsequent EUROPOP round.
For readers interested in tracking Europe’s evolving demographic landscape, Eurostat’s population statistics section offers regular updates, methodological notes and interactive tools for exploring national and regional trends. Staying informed about these shifts can help individuals, businesses and governments anticipate future needs and opportunities.