The warning from the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has drawn global attention to a growing concern: more countries are reportedly pursuing nuclear weapons capabilities, raising fears of a new arms race. Rafael Grossi, the IAEA Director General, stated that the world is facing a new challenge in nuclear proliferation, with increasing numbers of states seeking to develop atomic weapons amid rising geopolitical tensions.
According to Grossi, speaking in New York, the current international atmosphere makes any nuclear research a highly sensitive issue. He cited United Nations assessments indicating that up to 20 countries may be attempting to develop their own nuclear weapons. This situation, he warned, could lead to a significantly more dangerous global environment if more states acquire such capabilities.
The IAEA chief emphasized that the drive toward nuclear armament is being fueled by global instability, energy crises, and ongoing major conflicts, particularly referencing situations in Ukraine and Iran. He noted that the erosion of arms control frameworks and the potential withdrawal of key states from non-proliferation agreements further complicate efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons.
Grossi specifically referenced historical context, noting that the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), signed in 1970 by 191 countries, originally committed signatories to refrain from pursuing nuclear weapons. Major powers including the United States, Russia (then the USSR), the United Kingdom, France, and Germany were among the original signatories. He expressed concern that discussions among some signatory states about potentially withdrawing from or undermining the treaty could weaken the global non-proliferation regime.
He warned that a world with 20 or more nuclear-armed states would be extraordinarily hazardous, underscoring the importance of maintaining existing safeguards and verification mechanisms. The IAEA continues to monitor nuclear activities worldwide and provide technical assistance to ensure peaceful use of nuclear energy while deterring diversion to military purposes.
Separate reports from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) confirm that global nuclear arsenals are being modernized and expanded. In its 2025 yearbook, SIPRI noted that all nuclear-armed states are currently upgrading or expanding their nuclear forces, marking an end to the era of disarmament and arms control that characterized earlier decades. The institute highlighted that the current situation is more complex than during the Cold War, involving multiple actors beyond the traditional U.S.-Russia dynamic.
SIPRI’s analysis pointed to specific developments, including reports that Israel has conducted tests of missile propulsion systems potentially linked to ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads and is modernizing its nuclear reactor at Dimon for possible plutonium production. While Israel has never officially acknowledged possessing nuclear weapons, We see widely believed to maintain a nuclear arsenal.
the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) reported in mid-2025 that the nine nuclear-armed states — the United States, China, France, the United Kingdom, India, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, and the United Kingdom — collectively spent over $100 billion on their nuclear arsenals in 2024. This represented a significant increase from previous years, with the United States accounting for $56.8 billion alone, more than all other nuclear-armed states combined.
ICAN’s findings highlighted that nuclear spending by these states had increased by more than 47 percent over five years, reaching levels that could nearly cover the United Nations budget 28 times over. The organization criticized the lack of transparency, noting that citizens and even parliamentarians in countries hosting foreign nuclear weapons often remain unaware of such deployments.
These assessments come amid broader concerns about the weakening of international arms control agreements. The potential erosion of frameworks like the NPT and the absence of new limitations on nuclear modernization efforts have raised alarms among experts about the risk of renewed proliferation and heightened strategic instability.
The IAEA continues to advocate for strengthened verification measures and diplomatic engagement to prevent further spread of nuclear weapons. Grossi has repeatedly called for renewed commitment to the NPT and urged states to pursue diplomatic solutions to regional conflicts that drive nuclear ambitions.
As of the latest available reports, no new multilateral negotiations on nuclear arms control have been announced, though bilateral discussions between major powers occasionally occur. The next major opportunity for review of the NPT remains the quinquennial Review Conference, with the most recent held in 2022 and the next scheduled for 2026.
For ongoing updates on nuclear non-proliferation efforts, readers can refer to official publications from the IAEA, SIPRI annual reports, and statements from the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs.
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