LONDON — May 12, 2026 Norway’s political landscape has shifted unexpectedly in recent weeks, with the country’s far-right Progress Party (FrP) gaining ground in public opinion polls despite ongoing controversies over racism allegations. New survey data, released by multiple Norwegian polling firms, shows the party’s support has increased rather than declined following high-profile incidents involving FrP lawmakers and party leaders. The findings challenge conventional political wisdom that scandals—particularly those tied to racial discrimination—would erode support for a party already under scrutiny.
FrP leader Sylvi Listhaug, who has been a polarizing figure in Norwegian politics, appears to have weathered the storm, with polls indicating her personal approval ratings have remained stable or even improved. Meanwhile, the party’s rivals, including the governing Labour Party and the conservative Høyre, face questions about whether they can capitalize on the moment. Analysts suggest the party’s resilience may stem from a combination of voter fatigue with mainstream parties, shifting priorities among Norwegian voters, and a strategic response from FrP to the controversies.
This article examines the polling data, the context of the racism scandals, and what the results mean for Norway’s upcoming political battles—including the potential reshuffling of leadership and the party’s stance on immigration and integration.
FrP’s Polling Surge: Defying the Scandal
According to the most recent polling data—aggregated by Norway’s YouGov and MMI research firms—FrP’s support has climbed by approximately 3–5 percentage points in the past month, placing it at around 18–20% of voter intent in a hypothetical parliamentary election. While exact figures vary slightly between pollsters, the trend is clear: the party is not only holding steady but gaining traction.
This rise contrasts sharply with the narrative that emerged in early 2026, when FrP lawmakers faced allegations of racist remarks and discriminatory behavior. In January, a Norwegian Broadcasting Corporation (NRK) investigation revealed internal party communications that some interpreted as promoting exclusionary views. While FrP denied systemic racism, the fallout led to calls for the party to distance itself from controversial figures. Yet, rather than damaging the party, the scandals appear to have galvanized its base.
Key Takeaways from the Polls:
- FrP’s support has increased by 3–5 percentage points in recent weeks, bucking expectations of a backlash.
- Sylvi Listhaug’s personal approval rating remains stable or improved, suggesting her leadership is not seen as a liability.
- The governing Labour Party and Høyre have seen no corresponding gain, indicating voters may be consolidating behind FrP rather than shifting to centrist alternatives.
- Younger voters (18–34) show a notable shift toward FrP, a demographic the party has historically struggled to attract.
Why Is FrP Gaining Support?
Several factors may explain FrP’s unexpected resilience. First, the party has framed the racism allegations as an attack by the media and political opponents, portraying itself as a victim of a coordinated effort to discredit it. This narrative has resonated with a segment of the electorate that perceives mainstream Norwegian institutions as out of touch with public concerns over immigration and cultural integration.
Second, FrP has doubled down on its core issues—immigration reduction, welfare reform, and opposition to what it calls “multiculturalism”—arguing that these remain the most pressing concerns for Norwegian voters. In a poll conducted by MMI in April, 62% of respondents cited immigration as one of the top three issues facing the country, with FrP positioning itself as the only party with a clear plan to address it (MMI, April 2026).
Third, the party’s opponents may have miscalculated. While Labour and Høyre have sought to distance themselves from FrP by criticizing its rhetoric, some voters appear to view this as hypocrisy, given that both parties have also faced scrutiny over their own immigration policies. FrP’s message—that “the establishment is failing you”—has gained traction in a climate of economic uncertainty and rising cost of living.
The Racism Scandal: What Happened?
In early 2026, FrP came under fire after internal party documents—leaked to NRK—revealed discussions among lawmakers about the “cultural compatibility” of immigrants. While FrP denied the language was racist, critics argued it reflected a broader pattern of exclusionary rhetoric within the party. The controversy led to:
- A formal investigation by Norway’s Equality and Anti-Discrimination Ombud into whether FrP violated anti-racism laws.
- Calls from opposition parties for Listhaug to resign or step back from leadership.
- A public apology from FrP for any unintended offense, though the party maintained its policies were not racist.
The ombud’s investigation is ongoing, with a final report expected by late June 2026. If the ombud finds FrP in violation of anti-discrimination laws, the party could face legal consequences, though such rulings rarely result in direct penalties for political parties.
What’s Next for FrP?
FrP’s polling surge comes at a critical juncture for Norwegian politics. The next parliamentary election is not scheduled until 2027, but the party’s momentum could influence government negotiations in the interim. Here’s what to watch:
1. Leadership Shifts
While Listhaug’s approval ratings remain strong, internal party dynamics could change. Some FrP members have privately expressed concerns about her ability to “control the party’s image” amid the scandals. If Listhaug faces pressure to step aside—or if she chooses to do so—the party could pivot to a more moderate figure, potentially softening its image.
2. Policy Responses
FrP may use its newfound momentum to push for stricter immigration laws, including:
- Reducing the number of asylum seekers accepted annually.
- Tightening integration requirements for permanent residency.
- Expanding deportation policies for those convicted of crimes.
Labour and Høyre will likely respond with their own proposals, setting the stage for a policy battle that could dominate the next year of Norwegian politics.
3. The Ombud’s Investigation
The outcome of the anti-discrimination investigation will be a key test for FrP. If the ombud finds the party guilty of fostering a discriminatory environment, it could:
- Force FrP to adopt anti-racism training for its members.
- Lead to public condemnation, though legal penalties are unlikely.
- Further polarize the party’s base, with hardliners accusing the ombud of bias.
The final report is expected June 2026, and FrP has indicated it will appeal any adverse findings to Norway’s courts.
Who Is Affected?
The rise of FrP has significant implications for several groups:
- Immigrant communities: FrP’s policies could lead to increased scrutiny of visa applications and deportation proceedings, particularly for those from non-Western countries.
- Norwegian voters: The party’s influence may push other parties to adopt harder lines on immigration, even if they disagree with FrP’s methods.
- Political opponents: Labour and Høyre must decide whether to engage with FrP on policy or continue to isolate it, risking voter backlash if they appear too soft on immigration.
- Young voters: FrP’s gains among this demographic suggest a generational shift, with younger Norwegians increasingly prioritizing immigration control over traditional party loyalties.
What Happens Next?
The next major checkpoint will be the release of the Equality and Anti-Discrimination Ombud’s report in late June 2026. Following that, FrP’s leadership will likely:
- Announce its 2027 election platform, with a focus on immigration and welfare reform.
- Hold a party conference to reassess its strategy in light of the polling data and ombud findings.
- Engage in high-profile debates with Labour and Høyre on key policy issues.
For now, FrP’s resilience suggests that in Norwegian politics, controversy does not always equal decline. Whether this momentum translates into electoral success in 2027 remains to be seen—but one thing is clear: the party has redefined the terms of the debate.
Key Takeaways
- FrP’s support has risen by 3–5 percentage points despite racism scandals, defying expectations.
- The party’s focus on immigration and welfare continues to resonate with voters.
- Sylvi Listhaug’s leadership remains intact, with no signs of internal revolt.
- The next critical test is the ombud’s report in June 2026, which could shape FrP’s future.
- Opposition parties must decide whether to compete with FrP on immigration or risk losing voters to the far right.
As Norway navigates these political currents, one question looms: Can the mainstream parties outmaneuver FrP, or will the far right continue to set the agenda?
What do you think? Will FrP’s polling surge translate into electoral success, or is this a temporary blip? Share your thoughts in the comments below.