The recent, targeted strikes that resulted in the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, have triggered a complex power struggle within the Islamic Republic. While the immediate aftermath has seen a surge in retaliatory rhetoric and actions, the long-term implications point to a potential shift in control towards the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a heavily armed and politically influential organization that has been a cornerstone of the Iranian regime since its inception. The question now is not simply who will succeed Khamenei, but whether the IRGC will consolidate its power, leading to a more hardline and potentially destabilizing Iran, or if internal fissures and external pressures will create an opportunity for broader change.
The death of Khamenei, who had held the position of Supreme Leader for over three decades, has created a vacuum unlike any seen in Iran in recent history. The Assembly of Experts, a body of clerics responsible for choosing the Supreme Leader, has begun the process of selecting a successor. While names like Mojtaba Khamenei, the assassinated leader’s son, have been floated, many analysts believe the true power will reside with the IRGC. This assessment stems from the IRGC’s decades-long role in propping up the regime, its extensive control over key sectors of the Iranian economy, and its demonstrated willingness to use force to suppress dissent, most recently evidenced by the brutal crackdown on protests earlier this year.
The Rise of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
Established in the wake of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the IRGC was initially conceived as a parallel force to Iran’s traditional military, an institution the ruling clergy distrusted due to lingering concerns about loyalty to the ousted Shah. As NBC News reported on March 4, 2026, this initial distrust shaped the IRGC’s development, allowing it to grow into a powerful entity with significant political and economic influence. The IRGC operates outside the traditional military structure, answering directly to the Supreme Leader and possessing its own command structure, intelligence network, and military capabilities.
Over time, the IRGC’s role expanded beyond simply safeguarding the revolution. It became deeply involved in Iran’s economic activities, establishing companies like Khatam al-Anbia, a massive construction firm, that operate across various sectors, including construction, road building, port management, and even healthcare. The Independent detailed this economic expansion, highlighting how the IRGC leveraged its power to build a vast financial empire. This economic control provides the IRGC with significant leverage within the Iranian system and allows it to fund its military and political activities.
Expanding Regional Influence and the Quds Force
The IRGC’s influence extends far beyond Iran’s borders, largely through its expeditionary Quds Force. This unit has been instrumental in cultivating a network of proxy groups across the Middle East, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Palestine, and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. According to The Independent, the Quds Force has played a key role in creating what Iran refers to as its “Axis of Resistance” against Israel and the United States. The Quds Force has been accused of providing training, funding, and weapons to these groups, contributing to regional instability and escalating conflicts.
U.S. Officials have long alleged that the Quds Force has been involved in targeting dissidents and perceived enemies abroad, sometimes employing criminal gangs to carry out attacks. The recent escalation in regional tensions, following the U.S.-Israeli strikes, has seen the IRGC and its proxies increase their activity, raising concerns about a wider conflict. The IRGC’s ability to project power and influence throughout the region makes it a critical player in any future negotiations or attempts to de-escalate tensions.
The Aftermath of Khamenei’s Death and the Potential for Instability
The circumstances surrounding Ayatollah Khamenei’s death – a direct result of a U.S.-Israeli attack – have significantly altered the dynamics of the power struggle. Afshon Ostovar, an Iran expert at the Naval Postgraduate School, argues that even if a recent Supreme Leader is appointed, the IRGC will remain the dominant force within the regime. As Ostovar told NBC News, “The IRGC is going to be the last vestige remaining of the regime until the regime is overhauled, either within itself or by external forces.” This suggests that any successor to Khamenei will likely operate under the shadow of the IRGC, potentially leading to a more conservative and authoritarian Iran.
The recent crackdown on anti-government protests, which reportedly resulted in the deaths of over 7,000 people, according to the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, demonstrates the IRGC’s willingness to use force to maintain control. NBC News reported on these figures on March 4, 2026. With Khamenei gone, the IRGC may feel emboldened to further consolidate its power and suppress any remaining opposition. This could lead to increased internal repression and a more aggressive foreign policy.
The Tunnel Network and Potential Vulnerabilities
Recent reports suggest that Iran has invested heavily in constructing an extensive network of underground tunnels and facilities designed to protect its nuclear program and military assets. As reported by The Telegraaf, these facilities, while intended to provide protection, may now represent a significant vulnerability for Iran. The extensive tunnel network could become a trap, making it tricky for Iranian forces to maneuver and potentially turning these “rocket cities” into “graveyards,” as some analysts have suggested.
The Future of Iran: Internal Divisions and External Pressures
The future of Iran remains uncertain. While the IRGC appears poised to consolidate its power, internal divisions within the regime and external pressures from the international community could create opportunities for change. The economic sanctions imposed on Iran have severely impacted the country’s economy, fueling public discontent. The ongoing regional conflicts and the threat of further military action could destabilize the regime. The founder of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, as reported by NOS, has warned that “this monster will not give up easily,” indicating the regime’s determination to maintain control.
The coming weeks will be critical in determining the trajectory of Iran. The selection of a new Supreme Leader, the IRGC’s response to ongoing regional tensions, and the level of public unrest will all play a significant role in shaping the country’s future. The international community will be closely monitoring the situation, seeking to prevent further escalation and promote a peaceful resolution. The Times of Israel reports that further attacks on Iran are expected for at least another one to two weeks, while Iran denies firing rockets towards Turkey.
The situation remains fluid, and the potential for miscalculation and escalation is high. The international community must remain vigilant and work towards a diplomatic solution that addresses the underlying causes of instability in the region. Further developments are expected as the Assembly of Experts continues its deliberations and the IRGC assesses its next steps. We will continue to provide updates as the situation unfolds.
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