New Delhi – The ongoing Rajya Sabha elections across ten Indian states are proving to be a significant test of political alliances, particularly in Bihar and Odisha, where keenly contested battles are unfolding. While many candidates are poised for unopposed election, the contests in these two states highlight the shifting dynamics of Indian politics and the challenges facing both the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and opposition blocs. Simultaneously, developments in Maharashtra suggest that a potential merger of the two factions of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) remains stalled, adding another layer of complexity to the political landscape.
The Rajya Sabha, the upper house of India’s Parliament, is crucial for legislative passage, and these elections are closely watched as indicators of party strength and coalition stability. The nomination process concluded on Thursday, setting the stage for voting on March 16. The outcomes in Bihar and Odisha are particularly uncertain, with both states witnessing strategic maneuvering and potential cross-voting scenarios. The elections also underscore the NDA’s continued efforts to broaden its social base through its candidate selections, particularly in Maharashtra.
Bihar: A Test for Nitish Kumar and Opposition Unity
In Bihar, the election has become a focal point following the decision by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) to renominate businessman A.D. Singh, forcing a contest for one of the state’s five Rajya Sabha seats. The outcome hinges on whether the opposition parties can forge a united front. According to reports, a victory for Singh requires the consolidation of votes from the RJD, Congress, and Left parties, along with support from the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). Frontline reports that the NDA currently holds a comfortable position with 38 votes to spare, potentially allowing them to secure four seats. However, a unified opposition could challenge this dominance.
The situation is further complicated by the political ambitions of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Kumar, who recently secured a record tenth term as Chief Minister in November 2025, is himself a candidate for the Rajya Sabha. NDTV reported that Kumar stated there had been a “desire in my heart” to move to the Rajya Sabha. This move has sparked speculation that the BJP, which has long sought to establish a Chief Minister of its own in Bihar, may finally achieve its goal if Kumar transitions to the upper house. Home Minister Amit Shah is reportedly working towards this outcome, according to journalists covering the state. The possibility of Kumar’s move to the Rajya Sabha ignited political debate, with Manish Kumar, consulting editor of DeKoder, posting on X (formerly Twitter) on March 3, suggesting that Kumar’s Rajya Sabha entry would pave the way for the BJP to assume the Chief Ministership.
The AIMIM’s stance remains crucial. The party was reportedly overlooked by the RJD-led alliance during discussions about potential tie-ups in the previous year, and its decision on whether to support Singh could significantly impact the outcome. The BJP is banking on potential divisions within the opposition ranks to expose weaknesses and potentially induce defections, believing that a contested election will highlight these fissures.
Odisha: An Unlikely Alliance and a BJP Countermove
Odisha presents a unique scenario with an unexpected alliance between the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and the Indian National Congress. This collaboration emerged after Congress decided to support Datteswar Hota, the BJD’s chosen candidate, for one of the state’s Rajya Sabha seats. This alliance is a departure from decades of rivalry between the two parties. However, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has thrown a wrench into the equation by announcing its support for Dilip Ray, a former Union minister and independent candidate.
The BJP’s move is seen as a strategic attempt to exploit potential discontent within both the BJD and Congress. With a history of successfully navigating closely contested Rajya Sabha elections, the BJP aims to leverage internal differences to secure a surprise victory. The BJD and Congress, combined, can muster 32 MLAs, enough to ensure Hota’s win, requiring a backing of 30 votes. However, reports indicate that internal disagreements within both parties could create vulnerabilities that the BJP intends to exploit. The political temperature in Odisha has demonstrably risen as a result of these developments.
Maharashtra: NCP Merger Stalls, Pawar Family Dynamics in Play
In Maharashtra, the anticipated merger between the two factions of the NCP, led by Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar, appears to have stalled. Despite efforts to consolidate the party, disagreements within the factions, particularly concerning Sharad Pawar’s future role, have hindered progress. A senior Sena UBT (Shiv Sena – Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) functionary indicated that there is little prospect of a merger, as Sunetra Pawar, Ajit Pawar’s wife, reportedly did not support Sharad Pawar’s desire to seek another term in the Rajya Sabha. This marks a reversal of Sharad Pawar’s earlier public statements suggesting he had “had enough” of electoral politics.
The situation is further complicated by the upcoming contest between Sharad Pawar and his nephew, Parth Pawar, son of Ajit Pawar. Parth Pawar is set to be elected unopposed and will represent the NDA in the Rajya Sabha, creating a direct confrontation between uncle and nephew. All three parties of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) – Shiv Sena (UBT), Congress, and NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) – are backing Sharad Pawar’s renomination for the lone seat they could win of the seven on offer.
NDA’s Social Coalition Expansion
Across the country, the BJP-led NDA is actively pursuing a strategy of expanding its social coalition by nominating candidates from diverse backgrounds. In Maharashtra, the party has fielded candidates representing Dalit, tribal, Maratha, and Other Backward Classes (OBC) communities. Ramdas Athawale (Dalit), Maya Chintaman Inwate (tribal woman), Vinod Tawde and Ramrao Wadkute (Maratha), and a candidate from the Dhangar OBC community have all been nominated by the BJP. Its ally, Shiv Sena, has also nominated a Dalit woman, Jyoti Waghmare, demonstrating a concerted effort to broaden the coalition’s appeal.
These Rajya Sabha elections are not merely about filling seats in the upper house. they represent a crucial test of political alliances and strategic maneuvering. The outcomes in Bihar and Odisha, in particular, will have significant implications for the balance of power in these states and the broader national political landscape. The stalled NCP merger in Maharashtra adds another layer of intrigue, highlighting the complex dynamics within regional parties and the ongoing competition for political dominance.
As the voting date of March 16 approaches, all eyes will be on Bihar and Odisha, where the fate of several key candidates hangs in the balance. The results will undoubtedly shape the political discourse in the coming months and provide valuable insights into the evolving dynamics of Indian politics. The next key development to watch will be the official announcement of results on March 16, followed by any potential shifts in state-level political alignments.
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