Ukraine War: Stalled Ceasefire Talks, Protracted Negotiations, and Continued Fighting
Negotiations for a ceasefire in Ukraine remain stalled, with Kyiv insisting on robust, long-term security guarantees from Washington as a prerequisite for any discussion of territorial concessions or a cessation of hostilities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy discussed the situation with U.S. Senator Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference and held phone conversations with U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
A potential framework involving a UN-administered interim governance for Ukraine, initially proposed by Russian President Vladimir Putin last year, has been revisited by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin. In an interview with TASS, Galuzin suggested this could be “one of the possible options,” citing precedents in UN peacekeeping operations. Moscow argues this arrangement would allow for democratic elections and the establishment of a legitimately elected government capable of negotiating a lasting peace agreement and future cooperation. Russia does not currently recognise the legitimacy of the current Ukrainian leadership. Zelenskyy, however, has stated he would only consider elections after a minimum of two months of a fully observed ceasefire.
Galuzin expressed Russia’s willingness to discuss the UN proposal with the United States and European nations, while criticizing the European Union for excluding itself from negotiations by refusing direct dialog with Russia. The EU remains firmly opposed to Russia’s actions, with High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas asserting that “Russia is not a superpower, its economy is in pieces; the only threat is that it gets from negotiations more than it has obtained on the battlefield.”
Ahead of a planned meeting in Switzerland,the prevailing sentiment from the Munich Security Conference is that the Kremlin is attempting to leverage time to continue its military advances. Zelenskyy has also voiced concern over perceived pressure from former U.S. President Donald Trump, who he believes is focusing more on Ukraine than on russia. The upcoming talks in Geneva, where U.S.envoys will also meet with Iranian representatives, are seen as crucial for securing concrete progress on security guarantees and economic recovery for Ukraine.Key sticking points include the duration of U.S. security commitments (Ukraine seeking 20 years, while the U.S.has offered 15) and the details of a proposed “Plan of Prosperity” which would grant the U.S.access to Ukrainian mineral resources.
On the battlefield, Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov claimed the “liberation” of 12 settlements in the first two weeks of February during a visit to troops. He stated Russian forces are advancing towards the industrial hub of Sloviansk and expanding the security zone around Sumy and Kharkiv. Ukraine, in turn, has responded with drone strikes, targeting a fuel terminal in Krasnodar, causing fires, and launching further attacks towards the Moscow region.
Sources:
* https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-says-trump-pushing-him-more-than-putin-2024-02-18/
* https://www.tass.com/politics/1756491
* https://www.politico.eu/article/kaja-kallas-russia-ukraine-war-munich-security-conference/
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