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SWEDBANK: The whole of Sweden will change – pinpoints the date

Swedbank predicts major changes for all of Sweden compared to other EU countries.

Mark May 7 in the calendar.

That date marks the start of a series of changes for the Swedish economy.

– The outlook for households is starting to brighten, says Swedbank’s chief economist Mattias Persson.

Does not stop at reductions

Namely, it is in May that Swedbank expects the Riksbank to initiate a series of interest rate cuts.

– We expect the policy rate to be cut by 25 basis points in May, to 3.75 percent, which will be followed by three further cuts this year. The Riksbank continues to lower the interest rate also in 2025, down to two percent, says Mattias Persson in a comment to the bank’s latest economic report.

But it doesn’t stop there.

According to Swedbank, the recently presented spring amendment budget is a first step towards a more expansive fiscal policy.

“Sweden takes revenge”

The bank calls it a “revenge” for the Swedish economy, where next year will be particularly expansive with SEK 50 billion in unfunded measures.

Gradually, Sweden will change gears – faster than the majority of other European countries.

– Recovery is in sight for the Swedish economy and when economic policy turns around, with a monetary policy that becomes less restrictive and a fiscal policy that becomes expansive, growth in Sweden picks up speed and ranks at the top in Europe, says Mattias Persson.

– This also speaks for the Swedish krona being strengthened.

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Incomes will be greater

Swedbank emphasizes that a less restrictive monetary policy will provide a “much-needed injection” to the entire Swedish economy.

– After two years of falling incomes, real disposable incomes are rising this year and even more next year, says Mattias Persson and adds:

– Consumption will remain subdued for a while as the labor market weakens during the year, but will start to rise after the summer and then take a big step up and grow by a whopping 3.4 percent in 2025, says Mattias Persson.

Stabilized housing market

In addition to falling inflation, higher real incomes for households and a general recovery for the Swedish economy, a future price rise is also visible for housing prices, which more or less remained stationary for a year and were at a level ten percent lower than the peak in the spring of 2022.

The situation has now stabilized. Higher prices are to be expected.

– The exchange rate change from the Riksbank gives a boost to the housing market. Together with improved household purchasing power, this speaks for an increased demand for housing and a cautious price increase of 2–3 percent this year and around 5 percent next year, says Mattias Persson.

Photo: MarcusOscarsson.se

Text: The editors

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