Iran: ‘Going back to war is not in anyone’s interest,’ risk analyst says
Amid ongoing tensions in the Gulf region, a senior risk management analyst has emphasized that all parties involved recognize the high costs of renewed military confrontation. Speaking to FRANCE 24 in its Perspective program, Paymon Azmoudeh, a senior consultant with Forward Global’s risk and compliance practice, stated that despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively constrained, the prevailing calculation among regional and international actors is that escalation back to war serves no one’s strategic or economic interests.
Azmoudeh’s assessment comes at a time when maritime security in one of the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoints continues to face pressure. The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global petroleum flows pass, has been a focal point of geopolitical strain, particularly as Iran and Western powers navigate a fragile ceasefire environment. While hostilities have not fully resumed, economic pressures persist due to shipping delays, insurance premium increases, and fluctuating energy markets.
According to Azmoudeh, who has advised clients on Middle East and Africa geopolitical risks since joining Forward Global in 2016, the current impasse reflects a deliberate avoidance of direct conflict. His analysis, grounded in years of work with federal agencies including the U.S. Department of Commerce and international investment projects, suggests that diplomatic and economic tools are being prioritized over military options, even as both sides maintain strategic posturing.
The Forward Global consultant, a graduate of the University of Maryland and George Washington University, began his career in Washington, D.C., focusing on human rights and civil society initiatives in the Middle East before transitioning to private-sector risk advisory. His expertise spans regulatory compliance, socioeconomic trends, and institutional expansion strategies across volatile regions, lending weight to his assessment of Iran’s current calculus.
In a separate appearance on France 24’s The Debate program, Azmoudeh addressed the dual pressures of Iran’s internal repression of protesters and the potential for U.S. Military action against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which the European Union has designated as a terrorist organization. He noted that while these developments heighten regional anxiety, they have not altered the fundamental reluctance among decision-makers to reignite broad-scale warfare.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical vulnerability in global energy supply chains. Any disruption—whether from mine-laying, drone activity, or naval blockades—can trigger rapid spikes in oil prices and freight costs. Analysts widely monitor the waterway for signs of escalation, given its role in supplying energy to Asia, Europe, and North America. Despite periodic threats, major shipping lanes have so far avoided sustained closure, though insurance firms continue to apply war-risk surcharges on vessels transiting the area.
Azmoudeh’s perspective aligns with broader assessments from international institutions that favor de-escalation mechanisms. While no formal agreement currently governs Strait of Hormuz access, backchannel communications and multilateral dialogue are seen as key factors in preventing miscalculation. His commentary underscores the idea that even amid economic strain and political rhetoric, the threshold for armed conflict remains deliberately high due to mutual awareness of its consequences.
Looking ahead, market observers and policy analysts are watching for signals from upcoming diplomatic engagements, including potential backchannel talks between Iranian and Western officials, as well as any updates from the International Maritime Organization regarding shipping advisories in the region. No formal hearings or UN Security Council sessions specifically addressing the Strait of Hormuz are currently scheduled for public release, though regional summits involving Gulf Cooperation Council members may touch on maritime security concerns.
For readers seeking to follow developments in Gulf security and energy markets, official updates are regularly issued by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the International Energy Agency, and regional port authorities in the UAE and Oman. These sources provide real-time data on tanker movements, insurance trends, and production levels that support contextualize the ongoing strategic balance.
As the situation evolves, the emphasis remains on maintaining open lines of communication to prevent accidental escalation. While the economic impasse continues to affect global trade flows, the consensus among risk analysts like Azmoudeh is that neither side views war as a viable path forward—a calculation that, for now, is helping to preserve a tenuous but functional status quo.
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