Russia may enter the war at any time if the West gives in to its rival

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The United States imposed new sanctions on Russia due to the invasion of Ukraine last week: nearly 200 companies and individuals were targeted. However, there is a growing debate about the point of Western restrictive measures if the war continues, in which tens of thousands of people have already died and cities have been completely destroyed. The United States and its allies have imposed sanctions on thousands of targets since the beginning of the conflict, with limited results. That is why most of the latest American measures are not aimed at punishing new businesses, but at preventing the evasion of existing sanctions.

The latest round of moves also includes measures against companies in Azerbaijan, Belgium, China, Russia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Slovakia. The US accuses the entities involved of enabling Russia to acquire dual-use technology and equipment from abroad that it would either be unable to produce or produce in large enough quantities.

Among the targets is a Chinese-based company that exported products necessary for the production of drones to Russia, and other technology suppliers operating in the Asian country and Hong Kong have also been blacklisted.

The move is part of a broader U.S. effort to counter what it sees as China’s support for Russia’s war effort. The country has become a leading supplier to Russia’s defense industrial base since the start of the war, mainly for critical components, and the US believes that if China were to end its support, Moscow would struggle to sustain its war effort. But Beijing has rejected the US accusations, saying it continues to export dual-use items in accordance with laws and regulations without violating sanctions, in line with World Trade Organization (WTO) rules.

According to the United States – and based on several tests – Chinese companies are actually deliberately circumventing regulations and sanctions through intermediaries.

In addition, the White House may be concerned that the latest round of sanctions will come at a time when Russia’s trade with China is expected to reach an all-time high of $240 billion in 2023, a 26.3% increase over the previous year. Russia and China have almost completely abandoned the use of the US dollar for settlements, more than 90% of which are carried out in the two countries’ own currencies. This unrestricted trade has also helped Russia to rebuild its military, which has been severely weakened by more than two years of fighting in Ukraine.

It is little consolation that after the previous round of sanctions there was already some decline in direct product exchange: according to , the Asian economy’s exports to Russia fell in March, the first year-on-year decline since mid-2022. Product turnover shrank by almost 16% compared to a year earlier, and in addition, that month was particularly weak in 2023 as well.

Don’t we need a Sino-American conflict next to Ukraine?

All of this threatens that the tensions between Washington and Beijing are increasing. The US and China have clashed over many issues, including world trade, dumped goods, human rights and Taiwan. The latest dispute over Beijing’s aid to Russia threatens to further strain relations between the world’s two largest economies, writes the analysis Think China research center.

Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine continues to take a heavy toll: the conflict has forced millions of people to flee their homes and many more are in need of humanitarian assistance. The international community has condemned Russia’s aggression and called for an end to the violence, but a peaceful resolution to the conflict remains to be seen.

As the war drags on, the US and its allies are under increasing pressure to do more to stop Russia’s aggression. The latest round of sanctions is part of a broader effort to increase pressure on Russia, but it remains to be seen whether it will be enough to change Moscow’s behavior. Some analysts are calling for tougher measures, including a no-fly zone over Ukraine, but others warn that

such a move would risk escalating the conflict into a wider war between Russia and the West.

Some analysts say the West needs to do more to build relationships with rising powers like China and Russia and find ways to work together on common issues. Others say the West should take a tougher stance in defending its values ​​and interests and take firm action against authoritarian regimes that seek to undermine the international order.

The situation in Ukraine also highlights the need for greater investment in diplomacy and conflict prevention, according to Think China analysts, who believe that Beijing is helping to evade sanctions not because of strong Chinese-Russian relations, but because of weak American-Chinese relations. If the two sides were to focus on settling their relations, China would not be interested in supporting Vladimir Putin and his regime.

Experts see that while sanctions and other coercive measures can be effective in certain circumstances, they are often insufficient to address the root causes of conflict. The international community must do more to address the grievances and insecurities behind conflicts like the one in Ukraine, and find ways to promote confidence-building and dialogue between adversaries.

Mainly because the West – including the United States – should have a more intensive dialogue with China, because it is clear that Beijing does not care about Russian interests at all: wherever it can, it pushes the Russians out of their traditional markets.

The Kremlin seems to find it difficult to accept that Russia has fallen behind China in Central Asian trade. This was evident at a recent trade fair in Tashkent, where Russia’s Deputy Trade Representative Igor Kamynin asserted that Russia and China are equal partners in trade with Uzbekistan. However, Kamynin’s claim was not based on current data, but on trade targets set for 2030.

The statistics show a significant difference between Russia and China: the Uzbek-Chinese trade turnover is 13.7 billion dollars, which is almost 30 percent higher than the Uzbek-Russian trade turnover of 9.8 billion dollars. China currently leads bilateral trade with Uzbekistan for the first quarter of 2024, and Russia has even lost its position. This pattern is not unique to Uzbekistan, as according to official statistics in 2023, China will overtake Russia in trade with all five regional Central Asian states – Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan, reports the Eurasianet research center.

For this reason, it is conceivable that the West would make an offer to Beijing, taking into account China’s interests, then President Xi Jinping could quickly turn away from Putin. However, it is a question of how far Washington or the European Union can reconcile with the Chinese, when both economic powers increasingly feel the threat from the Asian country.

Cover photo: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Beijing Belt and Road Initiative International Forum at the Great Hall of the People in the Chinese capital on October 18, 2023. Photo credit: Kyodo News via Getty Images.