summary of “The Next War Could Begin on American Soil” – Foreign Affairs Article
This article argues that the nature of conflict is shifting towards “total war,” where adversaries target entire societies and economies before open combat begins, focusing on disrupting critical infrastructure. The US is currently unprepared for this new reality and needs a extensive “total defense” strategy. Here’s a breakdown of the key points:
1. The Changing Nature of Conflict:
* Pre-positioning Attacks: Adversaries are actively infiltrating and preparing to disrupt critical infrastructure (power grids, water systems, communications, etc.) before a traditional military conflict. The goal is to paralyze the US before a shot is fired.
* Blurring Lines: The distinction between peace and war is fading.Domestic crisis management is the first theater of conflict.
* “Total War” Return: The article references Mara Karlin’s concept of ”the return of total war,” where entire societies are mobilized for conflict.
2. US Vulnerabilities & Failures:
* Fragmented Defense: Current US efforts to protect critical infrastructure are disjointed and insufficient.
* Outdated Infrastructure: many critical systems rely on old, vulnerable technology.
* Erosion of Progress: Recent reports (Cyberspace Solarium Commission 2.0) indicate a decline in US cyber-posture despite increasing threats.
* Conceptual Lag: US deterrence strategy is based on Cold War thinking,which doesn’t account for the gray-zone tactics and pre-positioned attacks of modern adversaries.
* Lack of Societal Preparedness: The US has lost the societal preparedness ethos present during the Cold War (civil defense drills,etc.).
3. Lessons from Other Democracies:
* Finland & Sweden: These countries have robust ”comprehensive security” and “total defense” models, including nationwide preparedness exercises, mandatory continuity plans, and public education.
* Poland: Integrating territorial defense units with community resilience.
* Japan: Incorporating resilience education (critical thinking, media literacy) into school curricula.
4. Proposed Solutions:
* Infrastructure Hardening: A coordinated campaign (led by DHS & DOE) to remove foreign (especially Chinese) access and components from critical infrastructure. This includes banning high-risk vendors and requiring replacements.
* Deterrence by Punishment: Automatic, offensive cyber-actions and economic penalties in response to pre-positioning attacks.
* National Resilience Council: A centralized body with budget authority to coordinate resilience efforts across agencies, set performance goals, and ensure strategic alignment.
* Treat Pre-positioning as an act of War: Recognize and respond to these actions as planning for a larger attack.
In essence, the article is a call to action for the US to fundamentally rethink its national security strategy and prepare for a new era of conflict where the battlefield extends far beyond traditional military domains and into the everyday lives of its citizens.
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