May 7, 2026 — 14:30 UTC | By Maria Petrova, Editor, World

Typhoon Hagibis 2026: AI-Predicted ‘Double Cyclone’ Scenario Raises Alerts for Hong Kong, Taiwan and South China

Meteorologists are monitoring a rapidly evolving situation in the western Pacific as Typhoon Hagibis intensifies, with advanced AI forecasting models now suggesting a rare “double cyclone” phenomenon could develop within days. While the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and Hong Kong Observatory have issued warnings about Hagibis’ strengthening trajectory, some experimental AI tools are predicting the formation of a second tropical cyclone near Taiwan, potentially creating a dangerous “Fujiwhara effect” interaction that could alter the storm’s path toward Hong Kong and southern China.

The South China Sea region is bracing for what could turn into one of the most complex typhoon seasons in recent memory. As of May 7, Hagibis—currently located east of the Philippines—has already prompted emergency preparations across multiple jurisdictions. The Hong Kong Observatory has warned of possible typhoon-force winds by early next week, while Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau is advising coastal communities to monitor developments closely. Meanwhile, Guangdong province in southern China has activated its storm response protocols, with meteorologists cautioning that even if Hagibis takes a northern track, its outer bands could still bring torrential rain and destructive winds to coastal areas.

Key developments:

• AI forecasting models are predicting a second tropical depression could form near Taiwan within 72 hours, potentially leading to a rare “double cyclone” interaction.
• The Hong Kong Observatory has raised the Storm Signal No. 1 warning, with typhoon-force winds possible by May 10-11.
• Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau is advising coastal evacuations in southern counties as Hagibis approaches.
• Guangdong province has issued orange-level storm alerts for 12 coastal cities, including Shenzhen and Zhuhai.

What Is the ‘Double Cyclone’ Scenario—and Why Does It Matter?

The term “double cyclone” refers to a meteorological phenomenon where two tropical cyclones interact in close proximity, often leading to unpredictable shifts in their trajectories. When two storms approach within about 1,400 kilometers (870 miles) of each other, they can begin to orbit a common center—a process known as the Fujiwhara effect. This interaction can cause either storm to suddenly change direction, potentially bringing hazardous conditions to areas that were previously not in the forecasted path.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), such interactions are rare but not unprecedented. In 2015, Typhoons Maysak and Goni engaged in a Fujiwhara effect in the Pacific, resulting in a dramatic shift that spared some regions from direct impact while bringing unexpected devastation to others. The current AI models suggest Hagibis could experience a similar dynamic if a second system forms near Taiwan.

While traditional forecasting models rely on historical data and physical equations, AI-driven systems—like those developed by Hong Kong’s Hong Kong Observatory—are now being used to simulate these complex interactions with greater precision. These tools analyze vast datasets in real time, including satellite imagery, ocean temperatures, and atmospheric pressure patterns, to predict how storms might evolve in ways that were previously difficult to anticipate.

Official Warnings and Preparedness Measures

As of May 7, the following jurisdictions have issued advisories:

Hong Kong

The Hong Kong Observatory has raised the Storm Signal No. 1 warning, indicating that winds are expected to reach gale force (34–47 km/h or 21–29 mph) within 24 hours. The observatory’s director, Mr. Johnny Chan, stated in a press briefing that while the exact path of Hagibis remains uncertain, the city must prepare for the possibility of typhoon-force winds (exceeding 118 km/h or 73 mph) by May 10 or 11.

“We are monitoring the situation very closely, especially with the experimental AI models suggesting a potential secondary system,” Chan said. “The public should secure loose outdoor items, reinforce windows, and review their emergency plans.”

Residents are advised to:

• Stock up on at least three days’ worth of food and water.
• Avoid unnecessary travel, particularly near coastal areas.
• Follow updates from the Hong Kong Observatory and local news outlets.

Taiwan

Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau has issued a sea warning for the southern coast, advising fishermen to return to port immediately. The bureau’s director, Dr. Chang Hsien-dar, warned that if Hagibis takes a westward turn—as some models suggest—it could bring heavy rain and strong winds to southern Taiwan as early as May 9.

In a statement, the bureau urged:

“Residents in low-lying areas and those near rivers should be especially vigilant for potential flooding. Schools and businesses in high-risk zones may need to suspend operations temporarily.”

Southern China (Guangdong)

Guangdong province has activated its orange-level storm response, the second-highest alert level, for 12 coastal cities, including Shenzhen, Zhuhai, and Zhaoqing. The provincial meteorological bureau has forecasted:

• Rainfall exceeding 200 millimeters (7.9 inches) in some areas.
• Wind gusts up to 120 km/h (75 mph) in exposed coastal regions.
• A high risk of landslides and mudslides in mountainous areas.

The Guangdong government has ordered:

• All fishing vessels to return to port by May 8.
• Temporary closures of schools and public facilities in high-risk zones.
• Deployment of emergency response teams to coastal communities.

How AI Is Changing Typhoon Forecasting

Traditionally, typhoon tracking has relied on numerical weather prediction models that simulate atmospheric conditions using physical equations. However, these models often struggle to predict the complex interactions that occur when two storms are in close proximity. AI systems, can analyze vast amounts of data—including real-time satellite images, ocean temperatures, and historical storm tracks—to identify patterns that might escape traditional models.

For example, Hong Kong’s AI-enhanced forecasting system has reportedly increased the lead time for severe weather warnings from 20 minutes to four hours in some cases. This improvement is critical for regions like Hong Kong, where urban infrastructure is densely packed and vulnerable to storm damage.

Dr. Johnny Chan, director of the Hong Kong Observatory, highlighted the limitations of AI in an interview with South China Morning Post:

“While AI models are improving rapidly, they are not yet perfect. We still rely heavily on human expertise to interpret the data and issue warnings. The public should treat all forecasts as guidance and remain prepared for rapid changes.”

Despite the advancements, meteorologists emphasize that AI should be used as a supplemental tool rather than a replacement for traditional forecasting. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) continues to use a combination of AI-assisted models and human analysis to issue official warnings.

What Happens Next? Key Checkpoints and Updates

The situation remains fluid, but here are the next critical developments to watch:

May 8–9: Formation of Potential Second System

AI models suggest a tropical depression could form near Taiwan within the next 48 hours. If this occurs, meteorologists will need to assess whether it interacts with Hagibis, potentially altering its path.

May 10–11: Hagibis’ Closest Approach to Hong Kong/Taiwan

The Hong Kong Observatory will likely upgrade its storm signal if Hagibis continues on its current trajectory. Residents should monitor:

• The 24-hour typhoon bulletins.
• Local news for evacuation orders.
• The Taiwan Central Weather Bureau for updates on potential secondary impacts.

May 12–14: Potential Impact on Southern China

If Hagibis takes a more westward track, Guangdong and neighboring provinces could experience heavy rain and strong winds. The Chinese Meteorological Administration will provide daily updates via its official website.

Safety Guidance for Residents in High-Risk Areas

Whether you’re in Hong Kong, Taiwan, or southern China, here are essential steps to take:

Before the Storm

• Secure your home: Reinforce windows, secure outdoor furniture, and clear gutters.
• Prepare an emergency kit: Include water, non-perishable food, medications, flashlights, batteries, and important documents.
• Charge devices: Ensure phones, power banks, and portable chargers are fully charged.
• Review evacuation routes: Know the nearest shelter and how to reach it.

During the Storm

• Stay indoors: Avoid windows and stay away from coastal areas.
• Monitor official alerts: Use battery-powered radios or weather apps for updates.
• Avoid floodwaters: Even shallow water can be dangerous.

After the Storm

• Check for damage: Look for structural issues, downed power lines, or gas leaks.
• Avoid downed wires: Report them immediately to authorities.
• Boil water if advised: Some areas may experience contamination.

Reader Questions and Answers

Q: Is the “double cyclone” scenario likely to happen?

A: While AI models are suggesting this possibility, it is not yet confirmed. Meteorologists are treating it as a scenario under observation. The Hong Kong Observatory and Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau will provide updates as new data becomes available.

Q: Should I evacuate if I live in Hong Kong?

A: Not yet. Authorities have not issued mandatory evacuation orders, but residents in low-lying or coastal areas should be prepared to leave quickly if advised. Monitor official warnings closely.

Q: How accurate are AI typhoon forecasts compared to traditional methods?

A: AI models are improving rapidly, particularly for short-term predictions (up to 48 hours). However, they are still considered supplemental tools and are not yet fully trusted for long-range forecasts. The Japan Meteorological Agency and Hong Kong Observatory combine AI predictions with human expertise for the most reliable warnings.

Final Thoughts: Stay Informed, Stay Safe

The situation involving Typhoon Hagibis and the potential for a “double cyclone” interaction is one of the most closely watched meteorological events of 2026. While the exact outcome remains uncertain, one thing is clear: preparedness is key. Residents in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and southern China should remain vigilant, follow official guidance, and avoid relying solely on unverified forecasts.

For the latest updates, bookmark these authoritative sources:

• Hong Kong Observatory
• Taiwan Central Weather Bureau
• China Meteorological Administration
• Japan Meteorological Agency

Have you experienced typhoon preparations in the past? What steps have you taken to stay safe? Share your stories and tips in the comments below.

— Maria Petrova, Editor, World