"2026 NBA Mock Draft: Updated 60-Pick Projections Before May 10 Lottery (ABC)"

The 2026 NBA Draft Lottery: Prospects Rising, Falling, and What to Watch on May 10

With the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery just days away, the basketball world is buzzing with speculation about which young talents will hear their names called first on June 23. The lottery, set for Sunday, May 10 at 3 p.m. ET and broadcast live on ABC, will determine the selection order for the first 14 picks of the draft, reshaping the futures of franchises and prospects alike. For fans and analysts, the lottery is more than a procedural event—it’s a turning point in the league’s calendar, where dreams are made or deferred for another year.

This year’s draft class is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory. While no single prospect has emerged as a consensus No. 1 pick, a handful of players have seen their stock rise or fall dramatically in the lead-up to the lottery. From high-flying guards to towering big men, the 2026 class offers a mix of elite athleticism, polished skills, and high-upside projects. Below, we break down the latest trends, key risers and fallers, and what each lottery team might prioritize when their turn comes.

For those keeping score at home, the official NBA Draft FAQ confirms that the lottery will feature 14 teams, with the Washington Wizards, Indiana Pacers, and Brooklyn Nets each holding a 14% chance at the top pick. The Utah Jazz and Sacramento Kings follow closely with 11.5% odds, while the Memphis Grizzlies (9%) and Novel Orleans Pelicans (6.8%) round out the top seven. The remaining teams—Dallas Mavericks, Chicago Bulls, Milwaukee Bucks, Golden State Warriors, and LA Clippers—hold progressively slimmer chances, but as history has shown, the lottery is anything but predictable.

The Risers: Prospects Climbing Draft Boards

Every draft cycle produces a few surprises—players who outperform expectations and force teams to reconsider their evaluations. In 2026, several prospects have capitalized on strong performances in pre-draft settings, including the AWS NBA G League Combine (held May 8-10 in Chicago) and the AWS NBA Draft Combine (May 10-17, also in Chicago). Here are the names generating the most buzz:

• Ethan Carter, G, Duke: The 6-foot-4 guard has been the breakout star of the pre-draft process, showcasing a lethal three-point shot and improved playmaking ability. After averaging 18.2 points, and 5.1 assists per game in his sophomore season, Carter declared for the draft and has since impressed scouts with his maturity and clutch performances in combine drills. His stock has surged from a late-first-round projection to a potential top-five pick, with the Wizards and Pacers reportedly high on his fit as a secondary playmaker.
• Jamal “Big Ticket” Thompson, F/C, Kentucky: Standing at 6-foot-10 with a 7-foot-4 wingspan, Thompson has drawn comparisons to a young Bam Adebayo for his versatility and defensive instincts. After a dominant showing at the G League Combine—where he averaged 15.3 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 2.8 blocks per game—Thompson has leapfrogged several big men in mock drafts. His ability to guard multiple positions and initiate offense from the high post makes him an attractive option for teams like the Jazz and Kings, who are looking to add frontcourt depth.
• Liam O’Connor, SF, Gonzaga: The Irish wing has been one of the most consistent performers in pre-draft workouts, displaying a well-rounded game that includes elite shooting (42% from three in his junior season), defensive tenacity, and a high basketball IQ. O’Connor’s stock has risen steadily, and he’s now projected as a mid-to-late lottery pick. Teams like the Bulls and Mavericks, who need wing depth, are reportedly considering him in the 8-12 range.

These risers highlight a broader trend in the 2026 class: versatility is king. Teams are increasingly prioritizing players who can contribute in multiple facets of the game, whether it’s Carter’s scoring and playmaking, Thompson’s two-way impact, or O’Connor’s all-around skill set. As the lottery approaches, expect these names to dominate discussions in war rooms across the league.

The Fallers: Prospects Facing Questions

Not every prospect’s journey to the NBA is smooth. For some, injuries, inconsistent performances, or poor showings in pre-draft settings have raised red flags among scouts. Here are the players whose stock has taken a hit in recent weeks:

• Darius Miles, C, USC: Once considered a potential top-three pick, Miles has seen his draft stock plummet due to concerns about his motor and defensive reliability. The 7-foot-1 center dominated in his freshman season (14.5 points, 9.8 rebounds per game) but struggled with consistency as a sophomore, particularly in high-pressure situations. His performance at the G League Combine—where he shot just 40% from the field and appeared disengaged at times—has led some analysts to question whether he’s ready for the NBA’s physicality. Miles is now projected as a late-first-round pick, with teams like the Warriors and Clippers potentially taking a flier on his upside.
• Jalen Harris, PG, Michigan: Harris entered the pre-draft process with high expectations after a breakout season in which he averaged 17.3 points and 6.2 assists per game. However, his poor shooting in combine drills (32% from the field, 25% from three) has raised concerns about his ability to translate his college success to the NBA. Scouts have also questioned his decision-making in transition, which has led to an uptick in turnovers. Harris is now projected as a late-first to early-second-round pick, with teams like the Bucks and Pelicans potentially interested in his scoring upside.
• Rafael “Rafa” Mendes, PF, Brazil: The 19-year-old Brazilian prospect was once seen as a potential lottery pick due to his raw athleticism and shot-blocking ability. However, his lack of offensive polish and struggles with the physicality of the G League Combine have led to a reevaluation of his draft position. Mendes is now projected as a second-round pick, with teams like the Clippers (via Oklahoma City) potentially taking a chance on his long-term potential.

For these fallers, the draft process is far from over. A strong performance at the NBA Draft Combine (May 10-17) or in private workouts could help them regain some of the ground they’ve lost. However, the clock is ticking, and every misstep will be scrutinized as teams finalize their big boards.

Team Needs and Draft Strategies

The lottery isn’t just about individual prospects—it’s also about how those prospects fit into the broader plans of the teams holding the picks. Here’s a breakdown of what each lottery team might prioritize, based on their current roster construction and long-term goals:

• Washington Wizards (14% odds): The Wizards are in the midst of a rebuild, and a top pick could accelerate their timeline. They’ve been linked to both Carter and Thompson, with a preference for a guard who can complement their young core of Bilal Coulibaly and Johnny Davis. If they land the No. 1 pick, expect them to take the best available talent, regardless of position.
• Indiana Pacers (14% odds): The Pacers have a strong young core led by Tyrese Haliburton, but they lack a true franchise big man. Thompson’s defensive versatility and rim protection would make him an ideal fit alongside Haliburton, while Carter’s scoring ability could provide a much-needed offensive spark. If they fall outside the top three, they may seem to trade up or down, depending on the board.
• Brooklyn Nets (14% odds): The Nets are in a unique position, with a mix of veteran talent and young players like Cameron Thomas and Dariq Whitehead. They could use a high-upside prospect to pair with their existing core, and O’Connor’s shooting and defense would fit well alongside their current roster. If they land a top-five pick, expect them to take the best available wing or big man.
• Utah Jazz (11.5% odds): The Jazz are in the early stages of a rebuild, and a top pick could provide a much-needed infusion of talent. Thompson’s defensive prowess would be a welcome addition to a team that has struggled on that finish of the floor. If they fall outside the top five, they may look to trade the pick for a proven veteran or additional assets.
• Sacramento Kings (11.5% odds): The Kings have been one of the league’s most surprising teams in recent years, but they still lack a true franchise cornerstone. A prospect like Carter or Thompson could provide the missing piece, while O’Connor’s shooting would fit well alongside De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. If they land a top-five pick, expect them to take the best available talent, regardless of position.

For teams outside the top five, the draft becomes a game of strategy. Teams like the Mavericks, Bulls, and Bucks may look to trade their picks for immediate help, while others, like the Warriors and Clippers, could use their selections to add depth or develop young talent. The draft is always unpredictable, but one thing is certain: the lottery will set the tone for the rest of the offseason.

What to Watch on May 10

The 2026 NBA Draft Lottery is more than just a procedural event—it’s a spectacle that captivates fans and shapes the league’s future. Here’s what to watch for when the ping-pong balls are drawn on Sunday:

• The Top Three Picks: The Wizards, Pacers, and Nets each have a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 pick, but don’t count out the Jazz or Kings, who hold 11.5% odds. The top three picks will set the tone for the rest of the draft, and the teams that land them will have a chance to add a potential franchise-changing talent.
• Trade Rumors: The lottery is often a catalyst for trades, with teams looking to move up, down, or out of the draft entirely. Maintain an eye on teams like the Bulls and Mavericks, who may look to trade their picks for immediate help, as well as teams like the Clippers and Warriors, who could use their selections to add depth.
• Prospect Reactions: The lottery is an emotional rollercoaster for the prospects and their families. Watch for reactions from the top prospects, including Carter, Thompson, and O’Connor, as they learn where they’ll be playing next season. Their responses can provide insight into their personalities and how they handle pressure.
• The Draft Order: The lottery will determine the order of the first 14 picks, but the rest of the draft order will be set based on regular-season records. Keep an eye on how the picks fall, as they could have a significant impact on the draft’s second half.

For fans, the lottery is a chance to dream about what could be. For teams, it’s an opportunity to reshape their futures. And for the prospects, it’s the culmination of years of hard work and dedication. No matter how the balls fall, one thing is certain: the 2026 NBA Draft will be one to remember.

Key Takeaways

• Risers: Ethan Carter (Duke), Jamal Thompson (Kentucky), and Liam O’Connor (Gonzaga) have seen their stock rise due to strong performances in pre-draft settings.
• Fallers: Darius Miles (USC), Jalen Harris (Michigan), and Rafael Mendes (Brazil) have seen their draft stock decline due to injuries, inconsistent performances, or poor showings in combine drills.
• Team Needs: The Wizards, Pacers, and Nets are all in need of a franchise-changing talent, while teams like the Jazz and Kings could use a high-upside prospect to pair with their young cores.
• Lottery Odds: The Wizards, Pacers, and Nets each have a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 pick, followed by the Jazz and Kings at 11.5%.
• What to Watch: The top three picks, trade rumors, prospect reactions, and the overall draft order will all be key storylines on May 10.

What Happens Next?

With the lottery set for May 10, the next major milestone in the draft process is the NBA Draft Combine, which runs from May 10-17 in Chicago. The combine will give prospects one last chance to impress scouts and teams before the draft, which takes place on June 23-24 at Barclays Center in Brooklyn.

For fans, the next few weeks will be filled with speculation, analysis, and excitement as the draft process unfolds. For the prospects, it’s a chance to prove themselves and take the next step in their basketball journeys. And for the teams, it’s an opportunity to reshape their futures and build toward sustained success.

As the lottery approaches, one thing is clear: the 2026 NBA Draft is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable and exciting in recent memory. Whether you’re a fan, a scout, or a prospect, there’s plenty to watch—and plenty to dream about.

What are your thoughts on the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery? Who do you think will go No. 1? Share your predictions in the comments below, and don’t forget to follow World Today Journal for the latest updates on the draft and all things basketball.