As the climate crisis reshapes the planet’s physical landscape, It’s similarly redrawing the map of global power. Melting Arctic ice, shifting agricultural zones, and intensifying competition over water and minerals are no longer just environmental concerns—they are central to how nations define security, pursue resources, and navigate conflict. In this new era, superpowers are not only reacting to climate change but actively seeking to exploit its geopolitical openings, turning a planetary crisis into a contest for strategic advantage.
This dynamic lies at the heart of Arthur Snell’s book Elemental: the new geography of climate change and how we survive it, discussed in a recent episode of the In Solidarity podcast by openDemocracy. A former British diplomat with deep experience in climate and security policy, Snell traces how warming temperatures are unlocking new trade routes, triggering resource-driven migrations, and altering alliances across continents. From the Sahel to the South China Sea, he argues, climate change is no longer a background condition but an active force in international relations.
The podcast episode, hosted by Sian Norris, walks listeners through key chapters of the book, each anchored in a specific region where climate pressures intersect with geopolitical strategy. It begins with the fraying stability of petrostates like Iran and Saudi Arabia, whose economies face existential threats as the world transitions away from fossil fuels. It then moves to the Sahel, where desertification and declining rainfall are fueling both humanitarian crises and proxy struggles involving foreign powers and private military actors. The discussion highlights how France and Russia have competed for influence in African uranium-rich zones, often deploying mercenary forces to secure access to critical minerals.
One of the most striking examples Snell cites is the renewed international interest in Greenland. As Arctic sea ice retreats, new shipping lanes are emerging that could cut transit times between Asia and Europe, while the island’s subsurface holds rare earth elements vital for renewable energy technologies. In 2019, then-U.S. President Donald Trump publicly floated the idea of purchasing Greenland, a proposal swiftly rejected by Danish and Greenlandic officials but indicative of how climate-driven accessibility is reshaping great power calculations. The U.S. Has since increased its diplomatic and military presence in the Arctic, including reactivating Cold War-era bases and investing in icebreaker fleets to assert domain awareness.
The conversation also turns to Ukraine, where Snell describes how Russia’s invasion has been intertwined with efforts to control fertile farmland and grain exports—a move he characterizes as weaponizing food. Ukraine, often called the “breadbasket of Europe,” supplies a significant portion of global wheat, corn, and sunflower oil. By seizing territory in the south and east, Russia has disrupted planting cycles, damaged storage facilities, and blockaded Black Sea ports, contributing to global food price spikes. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization has warned that such actions threaten food security not only in Ukraine but across dependent regions in Africa and the Middle East.
In Asia, Snell examines China’s expansive energy infrastructure push, particularly its investment in hydropower, solar, and nuclear projects both domestically and through the Belt and Road Initiative. While Beijing frames these efforts as contributions to global decarbonization, critics argue they also serve to extend political influence, especially in resource-rich but politically unstable regions. At the same time, Russia’s deepening economic reliance on China has led some analysts to warn of a potential shift toward dependency, with Moscow increasingly positioned as a junior partner in a Sino-centric energy axis.
Yet amid these tensions, the podcast also highlights signs of adaptation and cooperation. Morocco’s investment in solar energy, most notably the Noor Ouarzazate complex—one of the world’s largest concentrated solar power plants—illustrates how countries on the frontlines of climate vulnerability are also becoming innovators in renewable energy. Similarly, the development of undersea electricity interconnectors linking North Africa to Europe offers a model for how climate action can foster cross-border interdependence rather than competition.
These themes reflect broader trends documented by international institutions. The World Meteorological Organization has recorded accelerating rates of ice loss in Greenland and Antarctica, contributing to sea level rise that threatens coastal cities worldwide. Meanwhile, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has emphasized that climate change acts as a “threat multiplier,” exacerbating existing social, economic, and political fragilities. In regions already prone to conflict, such as the Lake Chad basin or parts of Central America, prolonged droughts and unpredictable rainfall have been linked to increased migration and heightened competition over dwindling resources.
Snell’s analysis does not dismiss the dangers of this new geopolitical landscape. But he also cautions against determinism, arguing that nations still have agency in how they respond. Adaptation measures—such as drought-resistant farming, early warning systems, and regional water-sharing agreements—can mitigate risks even as emissions reduction efforts continue. The podcast concludes with a note of cautious optimism: while the climate crisis is undeniably reshaping the rules of international engagement, it also opens space for innovative cooperation, particularly in technology transfer, climate finance, and multilateral governance of shared resources like the Arctic and high seas.
The In Solidarity episode featuring Arthur Snell remains available on major podcast platforms, including Spotify and Apple Podcasts, and continues to draw attention for its synthesis of climate science, foreign policy, and on-the-ground reporting. As climate-related disruptions grow more frequent and severe, understanding their geopolitical dimensions becomes essential not only for policymakers but for citizens seeking to grasp the full scope of the challenges—and opportunities—lying ahead.