Russia’s economy experienced a slight contraction at the start of 2026, marking a shift in momentum following a period of modest growth. According to preliminary data released by the nation’s primary statistical agency, the gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 0.2 percent year-on-year during the first quarter of the year.
The figures, provided by the Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat), indicate that the Russian economy shrank between January and March 2026. This preliminary estimate provides a first look at the country’s economic performance for the beginning of the year, highlighting a cooling trend in overall output.
This quarterly dip follows a year of marginal expansion. Rosstat previously confirmed that the Russian GDP grew by 1 percent throughout 2025, suggesting that the current decline represents a departure from the previous year’s growth trajectory.
Diverging Estimates: Rosstat vs. Bank of Russia
While the Federal Statistics Service reported a 0.2 percent decline, other institutional forecasts had predicted a more significant contraction. The Bank of Russia had earlier estimated that the GDP decline for the first quarter of 2026 would reach 0.5 percent year-on-year.
The discrepancy between the two figures suggests that the actual economic contraction was less severe than the central bank’s initial projections. The Bank of Russia’s February forecast had anticipated a steeper drop, but the preliminary Rosstat data indicates a slightly more resilient, albeit still shrinking, economy.
Economic Outlook for the Second Quarter
Despite the first-quarter contraction, financial regulators anticipate a recovery as the year progresses. The Bank of Russia has issued a forecast expecting the GDP to return to growth in the next phase of the year.
According to the regulator, the Russian economy is expected to grow by 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2026. This projected rebound would signal a volatile start to the year, moving from a preliminary decline in the first three months to a near 1 percent expansion in the following quarter.
The shift in performance underscores the fluctuating nature of the current economic landscape as the government and central bank navigate output levels and growth targets for the 2026 fiscal year.
The next major economic checkpoint will be the release of finalized GDP data for the first quarter and the preliminary reports for the second quarter, which will confirm whether the Bank of Russia’s growth projections are met.
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