As international tensions persist across the Middle East, political analysts and historians are reexamining strategic doctrines of the past to understand modern state behavior. Decades ago, Israeli strategic thinkers pioneered frameworks for analyzing what they termed “crazy states”—adversaries whose calculated yet radical actions defied traditional norms of deterrence. Today, however, critics and geopolitical scholars argue that these very diagnostic criteria increasingly mirror the trajectory of Israeli military and foreign policy under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The conceptual foundation of this terminology traces back to strategic literature from the 1970s. Yehezkel Dror, who received the Israel Prize in 2005, published a 1971 study titled Crazy States: A Counterconventional Strategic Problem. Dror, who modeled aspects of his analytical approach on American defense intellectual Herman Kahn, examined how states possessing advanced military capabilities might operate outside conventional deterrence frameworks. According to historical analyses of his work, Dror argued that normal states faced with such adversaries must shift their strategies from standard defense toward destruction and preemptive attack.
While Dror originally deployed these frameworks to characterize hostile regional neighbors and nonstate actors such as the Palestine Liberation Organization, contemporary observers note a profound irony. Scholars examining the current political climate suggest that the behavioral markers Dror outlined—including the aggressive pursuit of expansive goals, intense ideological commitments, and an uncompromising stance that challenges international legal norms—now apply with striking relevance to Israel’s own governing leadership.
The Rightward Shift in Israeli Politics
To understand how contemporary Israeli policy evolved, political scientists point to a decades-long transformation within the nation’s party system. For almost three decades, the social democratic Labor Party dominated the political landscape, keeping right-wing factions like Menachem Begin’s Herut party largely in opposition. David Ben-Gurion, Israel’s first and until Netanyahu longest-serving prime minister, famously maintained a firewall against political extremes, rejecting coalitions with hardline factions.
However, the political equilibrium shifted dramatically following the 1967 Six-Day War and the subsequent 1977 election victory of the Likud party—an event described as an earthquake. Since the 2013 elections, right-wing coalitions led by Likud have dominated Israeli politics. This shift altered the ideological makeup of the 120-seat Knesset, where parliamentary majorities increasingly favor hardline stances on borders, territorial retention in the West Bank and Gaza, and military primacy over diplomatic negotiation.
Polling data gathered between 2022 and 2024 demonstrates a widening gap within the Israeli public, with Jewish citizens identifying as right-wing outnumbering those on the left by a factor of four to five. Analysts emphasize that this rightward movement redefined political terminology, aligning the mainstream right with policies favoring annexation, extrajudicial enforcement, and diminished civic rights for Palestinian populations.
Leadership and Regional Ambitions Under Netanyahu
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who secured control of Likud in 1996 and became Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, has overseen a marked escalation in regional military engagements. Following the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas, Netanyahu’s administration pursued extensive military campaigns across Gaza, targeted strikes in Lebanon against Hezbollah, and wars against Iran.
Commentators note that these operations reflect far broader ambitions than traditional deterrence. Security analysts, including Efraim Inbar, founder and director of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategic Studies, have frequently advocated for accepting international isolation and deploying preemptive force to establish long-term regional hegemony.
As domestic and international scrutiny continues, observers warn that the strategic doctrines once used to isolate adversaries are now reflected in the actions of the Israeli state itself.
We invite readers to share their perspectives and join the conversation in the comments section below.
Keep reading