Electoral formation constipation: the numbers

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Summary of the article

The electoral shifts are very limited. Opinions about the formation and the desired outcome are also clearly established when looking at the different groups of voters. Migration is the crucial topic. A clear majority of voters still offer politicians little room for maneuver on this subject.

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No electoral shifts

There have been virtually no shifts in electoral preference over the last two months. And just as there is little movement in the formation, we also see no movement in the electorate. Because almost 40% of the population now belongs to potential PVV voters with outspoken demands regarding the migration issue, this will remain a dominant factor in forming a government. Because if the current formation fails, the electoral influence of those voters will only increase.

Two articles about that today.

Distribution of seats

This week’s poll (among 8,500 voters) shows the following results:

The PVV is now as big as parties 2, 3 and 4 combined. In addition to the 31% who indicate that they will now choose the PVV, there is another 8% who give the PVV a good chance of getting a vote. It has never happened that a party was so dominant: 25 seats ahead of party number 2.

Gradient formation

62% of Dutch people hope that the formation will be successful. Of the current voters of BBB, VVD, PVV and NSC, this ranges from 73% to 94% (with the VVD as the highest score). But half of the CDA voters also hope so. The voters of PvdA/GroenLinks and D66 score the lowest there.

Only 43% expect this phase of the formation to be successful. For almost all parties this score is lower than the hope. For example, 54% of PVV voters think that this phase of the formation will be positive.

Only 22% of Dutch people think that the new cabinet will be in place before July 1. BBB voters are the most optimistic (45%).

Key role in Immigration

The subject of immigration plays a key role not only in the formation, but also among the population. Two graphs show this:

Not only PVV voters believe that the PVV’s positions on immigration and integration are most similar to their own, but we also see this among the other parties. At BBB this is 39%, with most other parties the score is between 10% and 20%. Just not with D66, PvdA/GroenLinks and Volt.

Three quarters of Dutch people believe that immigration in the Netherlands should be significantly reduced. Among voters of right-wing and center parties, this is between 80% and 100%.

These results combined with the result among PVV voters, 81% of whom indicate that Wilders will have to call off this formation attempt if his wishes regarding migration are not largely met, forms the core of that reported electoral formation constipation.

Not only does Wilders have little room for maneuver in the formation, but there is also a lot of support among the population for significantly reducing migration.

What the voters think should happen if this formation fails and a number of other results from this research once again emphasize the electoral formation of constipation in which the Netherlands now finds itself.

A separate analysis about this, which you will find here, only for members/subscribers of Maurice.nl (membership/subscription costs € 15 per year).