May 7, 2026 — London — While the world watches the escalating conflict in the Middle East, a quieter but potentially more disruptive crisis is unfolding in global chemical markets. Reports of an imminent ban on sulphuric acid exports from China—set to take effect this month—have sent shockwaves through industries reliant on the chemical, from fertilizer production to electric vehicle battery manufacturing. With China accounting for nearly half of Asia’s sulphuric acid exports and a quarter of global shipments, the move could exacerbate supply chain disruptions already strained by the Strait of Hormuz blockage, pushing prices to record highs and threatening food security worldwide.
Sulphuric acid, often called the “industrial backbone,” is essential for producing phosphate fertilizers, refining metals, and manufacturing lithium-ion batteries. Its sudden scarcity could force fertilizer plants to halt operations, strain agricultural output, and inflate costs for farmers already grappling with economic pressures. Analysts warn that the ban, if confirmed, would mark the latest in a series of export restrictions by China on critical minerals and chemicals, further consolidating its dominance over global supply chains.
The stakes are particularly high for the agricultural sector. Fertilizer production relies heavily on sulphuric acid to convert phosphate rock into usable nutrients for crops. With global fertilizer prices already volatile due to the war in Ukraine and now the Middle East conflict, a supply crunch could push costs beyond the reach of smallholder farmers, particularly in Africa and Latin America, where food insecurity remains a pressing concern.
Why Sulphuric Acid Matters—and Why This Ban Could Be a Game-Changer
China’s Dominance in the Sulphuric Acid Market
China isn’t just a major player in sulphuric acid production—it’s the linchpin. According to the latest trade data, the country exported nearly 4.5 million metric tons of sulphuric acid in 2025, representing 45% of Asia’s total sulphuric acid shipments and roughly 23% of global exports. This dominance stems from China’s vast copper and zinc smelting industry, which produces sulphuric acid as a byproduct. The chemical is also derived from sulphur, a commodity whose trade routes have been disrupted by the ongoing conflict in the Gulf.
When military strikes in the Strait of Hormuz began in late February, sulphur shipments—a key feedstock for sulphuric acid production—were diverted or delayed, pushing prices up by as much as 30% in some regions. Now, with China reportedly preparing to halt its own exports, the dual shock could send global sulphuric acid prices soaring to unprecedented levels.
Who Is Most at Risk?
The Fertilizer Industry: A Looming Production Crisis
Fertilizer manufacturers, particularly those producing phosphate-based products like diammonium phosphate (DAP) and triple superphosphate (TSP), are among the first to feel the pinch. Sulphuric acid is a critical input in the production of these fertilizers, which are essential for global food security. According to industry estimates, a 10% reduction in sulphuric acid supply could force 20-30% of global fertilizer plants to scale back or temporarily shut down, particularly in Southeast Asia and Africa, where local production relies heavily on imported sulphuric acid.
In the United States, where nearly 70% of farmers reported financial strain in early 2026, higher fertilizer costs could push input expenses beyond sustainable levels. Analysts at Arlington Innovative Partners, which specializes in critical minerals and supply chain risk, warn that the combination of geopolitical disruptions and China’s export policies could lead to a “perfect storm” for agricultural markets, with ripple effects extending to food prices.
Battery Manufacturing: The EV Industry’s Hidden Vulnerability
Beyond agriculture, the electric vehicle (EV) sector is equally exposed. Sulphuric acid is used in the production of lithium-ion batteries, particularly in the purification of lithium carbonate and the manufacturing of cathode materials. With global EV sales projected to reach 40 million units by 2027, any disruption in sulphuric acid supply could delay battery production timelines and inflate costs for automakers already navigating a competitive landscape.
China’s ban, if implemented, would force battery manufacturers to seek alternative sources—either by securing long-term contracts with other producers or investing in domestic sulphuric acid production. However, scaling up alternative supply chains is a lengthy process, and the immediate impact could be delayed deliveries and higher prices for consumers.
Africa and Latin America: The Regions Most Vulnerable to Food Shortages
The African continent, where fertilizer use is already below global averages, faces the most immediate threat. Countries like Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Kenya rely on imported fertilizers to support subsistence farming, and any price spike could exacerbate food insecurity. The World Food Programme has previously warned that fertilizer shortages could reduce crop yields by up to 25% in some regions, pushing millions further into hunger.
Similarly, Latin American farmers—particularly in Brazil and Argentina, two of the world’s largest agricultural exporters—could see their production costs rise sharply. With global food prices already elevated, the combination of higher input costs and potential supply shortages could trigger inflationary pressures worldwide.
What Happens Next? The Uncertain Road Ahead
Is the Ban Confirmed—and What Are the Alternatives?
As of this writing, China has not officially confirmed the ban, though reports from industry sources and trade publications suggest it is under consideration. If implemented, the policy would likely be framed as part of broader efforts to prioritize domestic demand and reduce reliance on volatile export markets. However, without clear communication from Chinese authorities, global buyers remain in the dark about the timeline and scope of any restrictions.
In the absence of official confirmation, industry players are scrambling to mitigate risks. Some fertilizer producers are stockpiling sulphuric acid, while others are exploring alternative production methods, such as using nitric acid in combination with phosphoric acid. However, these workarounds come with their own challenges, including higher costs and potential quality trade-offs.
Governments are also beginning to take notice. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has signaled concerns about the potential impact on global food markets, while the European Commission is monitoring supply chain disruptions closely. In the meantime, traders and analysts are urging businesses to diversify their sourcing strategies and build resilience against further geopolitical shocks.
Key Takeaways: What You Need to Know
- China’s sulphuric acid exports are critical: The country accounts for nearly half of Asia’s sulphuric acid shipments and a quarter of global exports, making it indispensable for industries worldwide.
- A dual supply shock is looming: Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and potential Chinese export restrictions could push sulphuric acid prices to record highs, threatening fertilizer and battery production.
- Agriculture is the first casualty: Fertilizer plants—especially in Africa and Latin America—could face forced shutdowns, risking food security and driving up global food prices.
- The EV industry is exposed: Battery manufacturers rely on sulphuric acid for lithium processing, and any supply crunch could delay production and increase costs for consumers.
- Alternatives exist but are costly: Switching to nitric acid or phosphoric acid as substitutes is possible but comes with higher expenses and potential quality issues.
- Governments are watching closely: The U.S. And EU are monitoring the situation, but without official confirmation of China’s policy, uncertainty remains high.
What’s Next?
The next critical checkpoint will be official confirmation—or denial—from Chinese authorities regarding the sulphuric acid export ban. Industry observers are also watching for updates on sulphur shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, as any easing of tensions could alleviate some pressure on global supply chains. In the meantime, businesses and governments are advised to:
- Monitor official statements from Chinese regulatory bodies and trade ministries.
- Diversify sourcing strategies to reduce reliance on single suppliers.
- Engage with industry associations for real-time updates on supply chain risks.
- Prepare for potential price volatility in fertilizer and battery markets.
As the situation evolves, World Today Journal will continue to provide updates on this developing story. We encourage readers to share their insights or concerns in the comments below—and to stay tuned for further analysis on how this crisis could reshape global trade dynamics in the months ahead.