Shifting Alliances: How US Policy is Driving India Closer to China and Russia
Recent developments at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit signal a perhaps significant realignment in global power dynamics.Meetings between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and both Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President vladimir Putin, coupled with escalating trade tensions with the United States, suggest a growing strategic convergence between New Delhi, Beijing, and Moscow. This isn’t a sudden shift, but a demonstrable acceleration of existing trends, largely fueled by perceived economic unilateralism from washington.
A Tripartite convergence at the SCO
The SCO summit, held against a backdrop of geopolitical instability, provided a platform for these key bilateral meetings. Modi and Xi pledged to address longstanding border disputes and enhance cooperation, a notable step given recent tensions. However, the most impactful interaction appears to be the strengthened relationship between india and Russia. This meeting gained particular weight in the wake of former US President Donald TrumpS imposition of a further 25% tariff on indian imports – bringing total duties to a considerable 50% - in response to India’s continued purchase of discounted Russian oil.
The US has consistently cautioned India against sourcing russian crude, arguing it sustains Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine. India, however, maintains that these imports are crucial to meeting the energy demands of its 1.4 billion citizens. This divergence in priorities is proving to be a critical fracture in the US-India relationship.
US Tariffs: A Catalyst for Re-Alignment
Analysts are increasingly pointing to Trump’s trade policies as a key driver pushing India towards closer ties with China and Russia. “While India-China reengagements started much before Trump, his policies are accelerating a process whereby India seems to be working much more closely with China and Russia to push back against economic unilateralism it is witnessing from the U.S.,” explains Harsh Pant, Vice President of Foreign Policy at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi.
This isn’t simply about finding alternative suppliers; it’s about signaling a willingness to diversify partnerships and challenge what New Delhi perceives as unfair trade practices. Modi’s two visits to Russia in 2023 – including a July meeting with Putin and attendance at the BRICS summit in Kazan – underscore this commitment.
Trump’s Continued Criticism & The Historical Context
Even as the SCO summit concluded, Trump continued to publicly criticize India’s trade practices and oil purchases via his Truth Social platform, labeling the US-India trade relationship a “totally one sided disaster!” and dismissing the possibility of a trade deal.This rhetoric, while not representative of the current Biden administration’s approach, reinforces the perception of unpredictability and potential hostility from the US.
The current situation builds upon a long history of strong ties between Russia and india, dating back to the Cold War. Russia remains a vital trading partner for New delhi, and its importance has only grown since the conflict in ukraine. Crucially, both China and India have stepped in to purchase russian oil, filling the void left by Western sanctions.
The Numbers Tell the Story: A Booming India-Russia Trade Relationship
India, traditionally reliant on Middle Eastern oil suppliers, has significantly increased its imports of discounted Russian crude. Currently, Russia accounts for approximately 37% of India’s total oil imports. This shift has fueled a dramatic increase in bilateral trade, reaching a record $68.7 billion in the 2024-25 financial year,with imports from russia totaling around $64 billion and exports from India reaching approximately $5 billion. Both nations are actively working towards a goal of $100 billion in trade by 2030.
Strategic Autonomy and Multi-Alignment
This burgeoning relationship isn’t solely about economics. Sreeram Sundar Chaulia,an international affairs expert at Jindal School of international Affairs,argues that Modi’s engagement with Putin demonstrates india’s commitment to strategic autonomy and its ability to maintain multi-dimensional partnerships.
“Modi’s meeting with Putin underscored New Delhi’s stance that India prized its old and reliable strategic partners and has sufficient strategic autonomy in its foreign policy to maintain and strengthen its multi-dimensional partnership,” Chaulia explains.The Indian government, while navigating this complex geopolitical landscape, remains hopeful that the current friction with the US is temporary. The long-term goal, as articulated by Chaulia, is to “return happily to having the Russian cake and eating the American pie as part of its multi-alignment strategy.”
Looking Ahead: Implications for Global Order
The events at the SCO summit and the subsequent rhetoric highlight a critical juncture in international relations. The US, thru its trade policies and pressure tactics,