Marrakech, Morocco – Morocco’s public finances are under scrutiny as projections indicate the country’s treasury debt is expected to reach 1.211 trillion Moroccan dirhams (MAD) by the end of 2026. This represents an increase from the 1.156 trillion MAD recorded in 2025, according to recent analysis from Attijari Global Research (AGR). The anticipated debt level equates to approximately $125.6 billion USD based on current exchange rates, and will require careful management as the nation navigates global economic headwinds.
The forecast comes as Morocco continues to implement economic reforms aimed at bolstering its fiscal position and attracting foreign investment. While the country has demonstrated resilience in the face of external shocks, managing its debt burden remains a key priority for policymakers. The projections from AGR highlight the importance of maintaining fiscal discipline and exploring avenues for sustainable economic growth. Understanding the nuances of Morocco’s debt structure – both domestic and external – is crucial for assessing the country’s long-term financial stability.
Attijari Global Research anticipates that Morocco will be able to maintain its budget deficit at 55.4 billion MAD in 2026, representing 3.0% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This projection is based on the budgetary developments outlined in Morocco’s 2026 Finance Law (LF-2026). The ability to control the deficit will be a significant factor in managing the overall debt trajectory.
Morocco’s Debt Composition: Domestic vs. External
A detailed breakdown of the projected debt reveals a growing reliance on both domestic and external borrowing. AGR estimates that domestic debt will reach 887 billion MAD in 2026, a 4.5% increase from the end of 2025. Simultaneously, external debt is expected to rise by 5.7%, moving from 307 billion MAD in 2025 to 324 billion MAD in 2026. This increase in external debt warrants attention, as fluctuations in exchange rates and global interest rates can significantly impact the cost of servicing these obligations.
As of the end of January 2026, Morocco’s total debt had already reached 1.171 trillion MAD, with domestic debt accounting for 863 billion MAD and external debt at 308 billion MAD. AGR analysts note that the proportion of external debt within the overall treasury debt remains relatively controlled, standing at 26% as of January 2026. This is projected to slightly increase to 27% by the end of 2026, remaining within AGR’s benchmark range of 25% to 30%. Maintaining this balance is considered vital for mitigating risks associated with external vulnerabilities.
Impact of the 2026 Finance Law
The projections from AGR are closely tied to the provisions outlined in Morocco’s 2026 Finance Law. The LF-2026 aims to foster economic growth while simultaneously addressing fiscal challenges. Key elements of the law include measures to stimulate investment, promote exports, and enhance social programs. The success of these initiatives will directly influence Morocco’s ability to manage its debt and achieve its fiscal targets. L’Opinion provides further details on the Finance Law and its implications.
Debt-to-GDP Ratio and Economic Growth
Despite the projected increase in debt, AGR anticipates that Morocco will be able to maintain its debt-to-GDP ratio at 65.5% in 2026. This is attributed to the country’s expected economic growth, as outlined in the LF-2026. The debt-to-GDP ratio is a crucial indicator of a country’s ability to manage its debt obligations, and a ratio of 65.5% is considered manageable by AGR. The ratio stood at 63.4% at the end of January 2026. Sustained economic growth will be essential for keeping this ratio under control and ensuring long-term fiscal sustainability.
The Moroccan economy has shown resilience in recent years, driven by sectors such as tourism, agriculture, and manufacturing. However, the country faces challenges including climate change, geopolitical instability, and global economic slowdowns. Diversifying the economy and promoting value-added industries will be crucial for enhancing its long-term growth prospects and reducing its vulnerability to external shocks. The government’s commitment to structural reforms and investment in infrastructure will play a key role in achieving these goals.
Financing Needs and Market Access
According to information shared on Instagram, Morocco’s Treasury is expected to face gross financing needs of around 144 billion MAD ($15.7 billion USD) by the end of 2026. This information, posted on March 8, 2026, highlights the ongoing need for the country to access both domestic and international capital markets. Successful access to these markets will depend on maintaining investor confidence and demonstrating a commitment to sound fiscal management.
Morocco has a track record of successfully issuing Eurobonds and other debt instruments in international markets. However, the timing and pricing of these issuances are critical, and the country must carefully assess market conditions to ensure favorable terms. Developing a strong domestic debt market is also essential for reducing reliance on external borrowing and enhancing financial stability.
Looking Ahead: Key Considerations
The projections from Attijari Global Research provide a valuable snapshot of Morocco’s debt situation and fiscal outlook. However, several factors could influence these projections, including global economic conditions, commodity prices, and domestic policy decisions. Monitoring these factors and adapting policies accordingly will be essential for maintaining fiscal stability and promoting sustainable economic growth.
The Moroccan government is expected to continue prioritizing fiscal consolidation and structural reforms in the coming years. These efforts will be crucial for reducing the debt burden, enhancing investor confidence, and creating a more resilient economy. Collaboration with international financial institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, will also be important for accessing technical assistance and financial support.
The next key checkpoint for monitoring Morocco’s fiscal performance will be the release of the government’s mid-year budget review, expected in September 2026. This review will provide an update on revenue collection, expenditure patterns, and the overall fiscal outlook. Investors and analysts will be closely watching this report for any signs of deviation from the projected path.
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