#Series #attacks #Middle #East #increases #risk #escalation #Gaza #war #War #Israel #Hamas
By Matthijs le Loux and Robbert van der Linde
Jan 5, 2024 at 5:01 am
The Middle East has been shaken by several attacks in recent days. And tensions are already high in the region due to the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. The risk of escalation of that conflict is only increasing.
On Tuesday, the Lebanese capital Beirut was hit by a drone attack. The important Hamas leader Saleh Al Arouri was killed, among others.
The attack took place in the Dahiyeh neighborhood, known as a stronghold of the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. This group has close ties to Hamas and regularly carries out rocket attacks on Israel, which is located south of Lebanon.
A day later, an attack was made on a general’s memorial service in Iran. Dozens of people were killed in two bomb attacks in the city of Kerman.
Another day later, the Iraqi capital Baghdad was hit by an American airstrike. The leader of a local militia was killed, the US Department of Defense reported. The target was the headquarters of the armed group, which is backed by Iran.
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Mess in Beirut after drone attack on Hamas leader
Oil on the fire
None of the incidents happened on Israeli or Palestinian territory. Yet it is additional fuel to the fire that has been burning in Gaza and Israel since October 7. Lebanon, Iran and Iraq all called the attacks on their territories a risk of escalation of that conflict.
Many countries in the region are already involved in the struggle between Israel and Hamas in one way or another. Since the start of the war, there have been fears that the conflict will spread further. The most feared is a large-scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati called the attack on Beirut “a new Israeli crime”. Hezbollah has vowed revenge for the death of the Hamas leader.
Israel did not claim responsibility for the attack, but neither did it deny it. “Whoever did it, it should be clear that this was not an attack on Lebanon. It was a targeted attack on the leaders of Hamas,” said an adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Protests in Lebanon after the alleged Israeli drone attack on Beirut. Photo: AFP
Israel cannot use angry neighbors
The attack in Iran has now been claimed by Islamic State. Iran’s top leader promised a “firm response.”
In any case, an exasperated Iran is bad news for Israel. The Iranian regime has called several times for Israel to be destroyed. It is well known that Hamas is supported from Tehran.
The American airstrike in Baghdad was a response to attacks on Americans in Iraq. But that also does not contribute to peace in the region.
Due to the previous wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the US is already hated by a large part of the Arab world. Israel does not benefit from its most important ally causing more tensions in the region.
2:14Play button
Iranian regime welcomes attack on Israel: this is its link with Hamas
Nobody wants to get into war themselves
In fact, no one seems to have much interest in a broader conflict. Iran likes to act as a disruptor, but does not want to become armed itself. The country prefers to support militant groups, such as Hamas and the group that was shot at in Iraq on Thursday.
Israel would also like to avoid a new front, but is preparing for it. It already sent more troops to the northern border with Lebanon. Army spokesman Daniel Hagari said at a press conference on Tuesday evening that Israel is prepared for anything after the death of Al Arouri.
The Americans have an aircraft carrier in the Mediterranean to keep Iran and Hezbollah in check. But Washington also prefers to have as little direct military involvement as possible.
Despite all good intentions, the snowball towards escalation can suddenly roll. A dangerous game ensues: how far can you go without pushing the other party off the snowy slope?
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