Donald Trump Is Crushing America’s Farmers—Yet They Still Back Him

On a chilly Tuesday morning in late April 2026, fourth-generation soybean farmer Mark Jensen stood in the middle of his 2,500-acre spread in central Iowa, staring at a field that should have been lush with early-season growth. Instead, the soil was cracked, the seedlings sparse. The war in Iran—now in its sixth month—had sent global oil prices soaring, pushing diesel costs to record highs. Jensen’s fuel bill for planting season alone had jumped 42% in a single year, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. But the real gut punch came last week, when China—his largest export market—announced it was slashing purchases of U.S. Soybeans by 30% in retaliation for Washington’s military strikes in the Middle East.

“I voted for Trump in ’16, ’20, and I’ll do it again in November,” Jensen said, kicking a clod of dirt. “I don’t like what he’s doing to my bottom line, but I don’t observe the other side offering anything better.” His words capture a paradox that has confounded economists, political analysts, and even farmers themselves: despite bearing the brunt of the Trump administration’s trade wars and now the economic fallout of the Iran conflict, rural America remains the president’s most loyal base. A Pew Research Center poll released last month found that 68% of rural voters still approve of Trump’s job performance, nearly identical to his 2020 support levels. The numbers defy logic for many urban observers, but for farmers like Jensen, the explanation is rooted in identity, policy, and a deep-seated distrust of the alternatives.

This story is not just about agriculture. It’s about the collision of geopolitics, economic policy, and rural identity in an era where the rules of global trade have been rewritten by military action and presidential tweets. It’s about why a demographic that has lost billions in export revenue, seen commodity prices collapse, and watched input costs skyrocket still believes the man responsible is their best hope for survival.

The Trade War That Never Ended

When Donald Trump launched his trade war with China in 2018, farmers were the first casualties. Beijing retaliated by slapping tariffs on U.S. Agricultural products, targeting soybeans, pork, and corn—commodities that rural America depends on. The Trump administration responded with a $28 billion bailout program, the Market Facilitation Program, which doled out direct payments to farmers to offset their losses. The bailouts were controversial—critics called them a band-aid on a self-inflicted wound—but they kept many farms afloat.

Then came the Phase One trade deal in January 2020, which promised China would buy $36.5 billion worth of U.S. Agricultural products annually. For a brief moment, it seemed like the pain might be over. But China never came close to meeting its targets. By 2023, U.S. Agricultural exports to China had fallen to $33.6 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The trade war had reshaped global supply chains, and farmers were left holding the bag.

“The Phase One deal was always a mirage,” said Chad Hart, an agricultural economist at Iowa State University. “China wasn’t going to buy more than it needed, and the tariffs had already pushed them to diversify their suppliers. Brazil, Argentina, and even Russia stepped in to fill the gap.”

The Iran War: A New Front in the Economic Battle

The U.S. And Israeli military campaign in Iran, which began in February 2026 after the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has opened a new front in the economic war on America’s farmers. The conflict has sent shockwaves through global markets, disrupting shipping routes, spiking energy prices, and triggering retaliatory trade measures from China, Iran’s closest ally.

In March, China announced it would reduce its U.S. Soybean purchases by 30%, citing “national security concerns” over the Iran strikes. The move was a direct response to the Trump administration’s decision to impose sweeping sanctions on Chinese companies accused of trading with Iran’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers. For farmers like Jensen, the timing couldn’t have been worse. Soybean prices, which had already fallen 15% since the start of the year, plunged another 8% in the week after China’s announcement.

The pain isn’t limited to soybeans. Corn futures have dropped 12% since February, while wheat prices are down 9%, according to the Chicago Board of Trade. The USDA estimates that net farm income will fall by $12 billion in 2026, the largest single-year decline since the 1980s farm crisis. And yet, despite the economic devastation, Trump’s approval rating among rural voters remains stubbornly high.

Why Farmers Still Back Trump

The disconnect between economic reality and political loyalty is a puzzle that has stumped analysts for years. But interviews with farmers, economists, and political scientists reveal a few key reasons why rural America remains in Trump’s corner.

1. The Bailout Mentality

Trump’s $28 billion farm bailout program wasn’t just a financial lifeline—it was a psychological one. For many farmers, the payments were proof that the president was on their side, even if his policies were the root cause of their problems. “The bailouts made it feel like Trump was fighting for us, even if the trade war was hurting us,” said Jensen. “It’s like a terrible relationship where the abuser keeps buying you gifts to make up for the bruises.”

The bailouts also created a perverse incentive: farmers who relied on them became more dependent on Trump’s continued political success. “If you’re a farmer who took $50,000 in bailout money, you’re not going to turn around and vote for the guy who wants to finish the program,” said Sarah Taber, a farm policy analyst at the Environmental Working Group.

2. Cultural Identity Over Economics

For many rural voters, Trump’s appeal goes beyond policy. He represents a cultural identity that resonates deeply in small-town America: a rejection of coastal elites, a celebration of traditional values, and a defiance of political correctness. “Farmers don’t vote based on spreadsheets,” said Darrin Ihnen, president of the South Dakota Soybean Association. “They vote based on who they think understands their way of life.”

A 2023 study by the Rural Policy Research Institute found that rural voters prioritize cultural issues like gun rights, immigration, and opposition to “woke” policies over economic concerns. “For a lot of farmers, the trade war was an abstraction,” said Ihnen. “But when they see Trump standing up to China, even if it hurts them financially, they see it as him standing up for America.”

3. Distrust of the Alternatives

The Democratic Party’s struggles with rural voters are well-documented. Many farmers see Democrats as urban, out of touch, and hostile to agriculture. “The last time a Democrat won Iowa was 1988,” said Jensen. “That tells you everything you necessitate to know.”

Biden’s 2024 campaign made a concerted effort to win back rural voters, promising to reinvest in rural infrastructure and expand broadband access. But for many farmers, the damage was already done. “Biden’s team talked a quality game, but they never really understood the issues,” said Ihnen. “Trump may be a disaster for our wallets, but at least he speaks our language.”

4. The China Factor

Despite the economic pain, many farmers still believe Trump’s hardline stance on China is necessary. “China cheats, and they’ve been doing it for decades,” said Jensen. “If Trump’s tariffs force them to play fair, it might be worth the short-term pain.”

The problem, of course, is that China has shown no signs of backing down. In fact, the Iran war has given Beijing even more leverage. “China is using the Iran conflict as a way to punish the U.S. Without directly confronting us,” said Wendy Cutler, a former U.S. Trade negotiator and vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “They know that farmers are the weak link in Trump’s coalition, and they’re exploiting it.”

The Road Ahead: Can Farmers Survive Another Trump Term?

The 2026 planting season is shaping up to be one of the most challenging in decades. With input costs rising, export markets shrinking, and commodity prices in freefall, many farmers are facing an existential crisis. The USDA has already received a record number of applications for its farm loan programs, and agricultural lenders are reporting a surge in delinquencies.

For Trump, the political calculus is simple: as long as farmers believe he’s fighting for them—even if his policies are hurting them—he can count on their support. But the economic reality is stark. “Farmers are resilient, but there’s a limit to how much pain they can take,” said Hart. “If the Iran war drags on and China keeps cutting purchases, we could see a wave of farm bankruptcies that even Trump can’t ignore.”

The next major checkpoint comes in June, when the USDA is expected to release its updated World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Analysts will be watching closely to see if the agency revises its farm income projections downward. If it does, the pressure on Trump to offer another round of bailouts will intensify.

For now, though, farmers like Mark Jensen are hunkering down. “I don’t know how much longer I can keep this up,” he said. “But I’ll be damned if I’m going to vote for someone who doesn’t even know what a combine is.”

Key Takeaways

• The Trade War’s Lingering Impact: Trump’s trade war with China devastated U.S. Agricultural exports, with soybean purchases falling 30% below Phase One deal targets. The economic pain has been compounded by the Iran war, which has disrupted global markets and triggered retaliatory trade measures from China.
• The Bailout Paradox: Trump’s $28 billion farm bailout program kept many farmers afloat but also created a dependency on his administration. Farmers who benefited from the payments are unlikely to vote for a candidate who opposes them.
• Cultural Loyalty Over Economics: Rural voters prioritize cultural identity—gun rights, immigration, opposition to “woke” policies—over economic concerns. Trump’s defiance of political correctness resonates deeply in small-town America.
• Distrust of Democrats: Many farmers see the Democratic Party as urban and out of touch with rural issues. Biden’s 2024 campaign failed to win back rural voters, leaving Trump with little competition in agricultural states.
• The China Factor: Despite the economic pain, many farmers support Trump’s hardline stance on China, believing it will force Beijing to play fair in the long run. However, China’s retaliatory measures in the wake of the Iran war suggest the strategy may backfire.
• An Uncertain Future: With input costs rising, export markets shrinking, and commodity prices in freefall, the 2026 planting season could be make-or-break for many farmers. The USDA’s next WASDE report in June will provide a critical update on farm income projections.

What Happens Next?

The next major development in this story will be the USDA’s June WASDE report, which will provide updated projections for farm income, commodity prices, and global supply and demand. Analysts will be watching closely to see if the agency revises its estimates downward, which could trigger another round of bailouts or emergency relief measures.

In the meantime, farmers are bracing for a difficult year. “We’re in uncharted territory,” said Hart. “The combination of the trade war, the Iran conflict, and rising input costs has created a perfect storm. The question is whether farmers can weather it—or if we’re heading for another 1980s-style farm crisis.”

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