In the second quarter of 2026, seasonally adjusted gross domestic product increased by 0.4% in the euro area and by 0.5% in the European Union compared with the previous quarter, according to a preliminary flash estimate published by Europa, the statistical office of the European Union. These figures exceeded modest expectations for 0.2% growth in a Reuters poll, driven by major economies outperforming forecasts alongside surging investment in artificial intelligence, government spending, and one-off factors.
Euro Area and EU Second-Quarter Economic Growth
The performance followed a stable first quarter in 2026 for the euro area, when GDP remained unchanged, and a 0.1% increase in the EU. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 1.0% in the euro area and by 1.2% in the EU during the second quarter of 2026, following annual growth rates of +0.5% and +0.8% respectively in the previous quarter. The preliminary flash estimate is based on data from 19 Member States, covering 96% of euro area GDP and 94% of EU GDP.
Member State Variations and National Outperformers
Economic results varied significantly across individual member states. Among the countries with available data for the second quarter of 2026, Ireland recorded the highest quarterly increase at +3.9%, followed by Lithuania at +1.7% and Sweden at +1.4%. Conversely, the lowest growth rates were recorded in Belgium and Austria, both at 0.0%. Across the bloc, the year-on-year growth rate was positive for fourteen countries and negative for one country.
Among the largest economies in the bloc, Germany, France, and Italy all expanded by 0.2% on the quarter. Spain, which has been a consistent outperformer, grew by 0.7%, exceeding expectations of 0.6%, while the Netherlands expanded by 0.4%, double its expected rate. Commerzbank economist Jörg Krämer noted that strong figures suggested Germany could grow by 1.0% this year instead of the previously anticipated 0.6%.
Driving Factors and Persistent Economic Pressures
Growth drivers included soaring business investment in artificial intelligence in Europe, resilient household consumption against gloomy expectations, and government spending on defense and infrastructure, particularly in Germany. Additionally, industry held up against high energy costs better than in previous years, supported by external conditions where Asian firms faced shortages of crude products, prompting buyers to turn to Europe.
Despite these positive results, analysts and institutions warned of ongoing headwinds. Commerzbank economist Jörg Krämer stated that the escalation of the Middle East war means more time is likely to pass before a final agreement is reached between the United States and Iran, which is expected to dampen the economic recovery in the second half of the year. High energy costs, shortages, inflation eroding real incomes, and higher interest rates at the European Central Bank continue to place pressure on consumers.
Upcoming Data Releases and Revisions
The preliminary GDP flash estimates are based on incomplete data sources and remain subject to further revisions. Eurostat noted that euro area and EU GDP figures for earlier quarters are not revised with this preliminary release.
All figures presented in the release may be revised with subsequent schedules:
- 14 August 2026: GDP t+45 flash estimate and next estimates for the second quarter
- 7 September 2026: Regular estimates of GDP and main aggregates, including employment
- 20 October 2026: Subsequent regular estimates of GDP and main aggregates
Comprehensive estimates of European main aggregates are published around 65 and 110 days after the end of each quarter, while flash estimates are published after around 30 and 45 days to improve the timeliness of key indicators.
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