Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a high-stakes political dilemma ahead of the October 27 elections, balancing pressure from his right-wing base against demands from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding a divided 15-point Gaza peace plan, according to reporting by Al-Quds. Netanyahu formally rejected the U.S.-backed proposal during a Sunday cabinet meeting, a move that analysts say could carry severe electoral consequences while granting Hamas a tactical and media advantage.
The unfolding diplomatic friction stems from a proposal initially described by Trump on July 30 as a historic milestone to end the war in Gaza, according to Al-Quds. The 15-point agreement eventually outlines the withdrawal of Israeli forces from wide areas of the Gaza Strip alongside the disarmament of Hamas. While Netanyahu has built his decades-long political career on unyielding security stances and expressed cautious reservations, the pressure exerted by the far-right which strongly opposes the agreement ultimately pushed him to reject the initiative outright during the cabinet session.
Electoral Calculus and the Dilemma With Washington
Voters in Israel head to the ballot box for the first time since October 7, 2023—an event marked as the deadliest day in Israel’s history, which triggered a war of genocide on the Gaza Strip. Yossi Mekelberg, an expert on Israeli politics at London’s Chatham House, notes that Netanyahu is known by his nature as a “procrastinator” who faces difficulty in gaining the trust of the far-right ahead of the upcoming October 27 vote, as reported by Al-Quds. Mekelberg explains that Netanyahu’s political survival strategy aims to prevent right-wing voters from defecting to the opposition by consolidating the impression that he remains the only fortress of strength capable of stopping Hamas. “Netanyahu knows that a rift with Trump does not serve him or Israel, but he also knows that once he agrees to the fifteen points, he will face an attack not only from the right, but from some opposition parties as well,” Mekelberg stated, according to Al-Quds.
For years, Netanyahu promoted his close alignment with Trump, pointing to unprecedented actions like moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem and participating alongside Israel in attacking Iran. However, Trump’s popularity in Israel declined sharply in April when he called for a ceasefire with Iran and pursued a settlement, arguing that the war in the Middle East was causing political and economic damage, as detailed by Al-Quds.
Military Manoeuvres and the Ground Reality in Gaza
Despite Netanyahu’s public rejection of the diplomatic framework, Israel has maintained practical adherence to key elements on the ground. According to Al-Quds, the Israeli state has suspended aerial bombardments since August 3, though local authorities in Gaza continue to report repeated Israeli violations. Ehud Eilam, a former analyst at the Israeli Ministry of Defense, points out that these operational pauses remain temporary leverage. “These strikes can be resumed, and even intensified at any time; it is one of the cards that Israel can maneuver with,” Eilam told Al-Quds.
Eilam further emphasizes that while Israel has not achieved its goal of completely eradicating Hamas, the military focus has pivoted toward disarmament. “Therefore, it seeks at least to disarm Hamas, which is also a very difficult task,” Eilam added to Al-Quds, noting that Hamas views the ongoing political paralysis under Netanyahu as a convenient excuse to avoid or at least slow down this process.
Tactical Gains for Hamas Amidst Political Uncertainty
Independent analysts observing the electoral landscape suggest that Netanyahu’s refusal to endorse the peace blueprint hands Hamas a tactical and media gain. Because Hamas previously announced its support for the agreement—which stipulates the disarmament of the movement, without having taken actual steps in this direction so far—Netanyahu’s outright dismissal positions him as the primary obstacle to a diplomatic off-ramp, according to Al-Quds. As the October 27 electoral deadline approaches, the veteran leader finds himself squeezed between an American administration eager to close regional files and a domestic electorate sharply polarized over security, governance, and the future of the Gaza Strip.
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